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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N16W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
07N E OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN GULF 
WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM 
WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N95W TO 29N94W TO 
25N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW 
ALONG WITH MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
AND N OF 26N...W OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN U.S. ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA  
EXTENDS SE INTO THE NE GULF WATERS. RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY COOL AIR 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR 
SKIES. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL 
MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO EASTERN 
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN EXTENDING FROM 20N84W TO 
16N84W TO 13N83W. A HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE NW BASIN W OF 79W...WHICH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A 
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND THEIR 
ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. TRADES OF 15 
KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY STILL ENHANCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER 
THE NW BASIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...                   

DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY 
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE 
FIRST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N80W TO 36N62W THEN INTO THE N 
ATLANTIC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. TO THE 
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO 34N56W TO 46N52W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 34N BETWEEN 51W-56W. 
FURTHER E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W SUPPORTS A 
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N46W AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N47W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW ALSO TO 43N29W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 36W-46W. A 1036 MB 
HIGH IS NEAR 39N19W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E 
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT ACROSS 
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE 
FRONTS ASSOCIATED TO IT WILL WEAKEN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Dec-2014 05:37:42 UTC