000
AXNT20 KNHC 041743
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun May 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Senegal near 14N16.5W and extends south-southwestward to 08N18.5W
to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N26W to 06N33W to near the 
coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection noted from 00N to 05.5N between 06W
to 15.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N 
between 18W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving very slowly across the eastern Gulf, and
extends from the Florida Big Bend to near 26.5N90W, then becomes
stationary and continues W-SW to the upper Mexican coast just 
north of La Pesca. Scattered showers on both sides of the front 
prevail across the Mexican coast and waters north of 24N and west 
of 96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from southwestern Florida to
near 25N86W to 24.5N93W. Scattered showers and moderate 
thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of this trough east of
87W across south Florida and into the western Atlantic, supported
by divergence aloft ahead of a broad upper level trough across 
the eastern U.S. North of the front, moderate N to NE winds
prevail, except NW to W winds across the waters south of the
Florida Panhandle. Seas north of the front are 1 to 3 ft east of
88W, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. South of the front, broad cyclonic
winds prevail west of 85W, with light anticyclonic winds east of
85W. Seas are 2 ft or less eas of 88W and 2 to 4 ft west portions.
Scattered showers are along the coast between Veracruz and Cabo
Rojo. Light smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern
Mexico continues to impact portions of the SW and central Gulf 
ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the slow moving cold front will stall and weaken
from near Sarasota, Florida to the central Gulf near 17N90W by Mon
morning. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the basin through
early Mon, except fresh to strong at night near the northern 
Yucatan. Winds over the western zones will gradually strengthen 
Mon evening through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to 
moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid-week, and
be gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf over the next several days. 
Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf midweek. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 
conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest 
reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered showers and a few moderate thunderstorms are seen in a
90 nm wide band that extends from the northeast Caribbean westward
along about 16N to 74W and then northwestward across eastern
Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds prevail along and north of this weather, 
where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to moderate trades are found
elsewhere south of this weather, except for moderate to fresh 
winds across the Gulf of Honduras, per recent satellite 
scatterometer winds. Seas there are 2 to 4 ft. only isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are seen near the monsoon trough across
the southwest Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue 
night, Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to 
continue over most of the eastern Caribbean through the remainder 
of the weekend and well into next week. Gentle to moderate trades 
and slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the
basin through the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
1029 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near
37N48W. Two lingering low level troughs remains across the waters
north of 15N between 52W and 62W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms prevail across the waters within 240 nm wither side
of the surface troughs, supported bu an upper level trough along
65W. The surface pressure gradient between the troughs and the 
high pressure to the north is producing fresh northeast to east winds
and moderate seas to 8 ft north of 25N between 45W and 60W. West
of the area, the Atlantic high extends a ridge southwestward to
the Straits of Florida, with moderate anticyclonic winds
prevailing. Offshore of Florida, fresh south to southwest winds 
prevail in advance of the cold front and pre-frontal trough over
the Gulf. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms dominate
the area from the northern Bahamas and southeast Florida coast
N-NE to offshore of Georgia, Some of these thunderstorms are
producing very gusty winds. Elsewhere to the east, ridging 
dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh trades. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad
trough along 55W and high pressure over the west central Atlantic
is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast winds and 
moderate seas north of 27N and east of 60W. These conditions will 
gradually shift westward going into the early part of the week as 
the trough drifts westward. A weak cold front will approach then 
stall near the southeastern U.S. coast later today through Mon, 
and lift back north as warm front around the middle of the week. 
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the 
western waters through the rest of the weekend and into the early 
part of the week. 

$$
Stripling