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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281158
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE 
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. 
AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING 
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON 
THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING 
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W 
OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT 
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT 
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND 
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING 
CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT 
ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS 
MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE 
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD 
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN 
SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES 
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL 
WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE 
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW 
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT 
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH 
NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR 
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE 
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Feb-2015 11:58:13 UTC