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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 
10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 6N40W 
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N E OF 23W AND 
WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB 
HIGH ON WEST VIRGINIA...WHICH EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS RIDGE 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORT EASTERLY WIND OF 20-25 KT WHILE A 
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF 90W PROVIDES FOR E-SE WIND 
FLOW OF 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 
26N MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. MIDDLE- TO LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL 
MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PAC WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF. A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SW TO WESTERN CUBA 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST 
VIRGINIA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A COLD 
FRONT WILL START ENTERING THE NW BASIN EARLY MONDAY. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION. THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER 
WESTERN CUBA FROM WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 21N85W TO 
16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COASTS OF 
BELIZE...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
OVER THE NE BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE 
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS TONIGHT AND 
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SAT 
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA... 

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS 
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY MORNING...A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS STARTS 
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIRMASS 
ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 34N53W SW TO 27N65W TO 25N71W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER 
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY 
A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ON 
THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS EAST OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 13W. 
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. A 
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST VIRGINIA MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT THREE 
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Saturday, 22-Nov-2014 06:03:57 UTC