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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
722 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The current synoptic analysis consists of: a dissipating cold
front from 31N37W to 27N44W to 24N50W. A surface trough is along
26N64W to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 21N68W, and
to 19N68W. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights 
ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 24N to 26N between 66W and 
69W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, curving to 05N12W and 03N16W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N16W, to the Equator along 25W, to 03S38W near 
the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate 
to locally strong to the southeast of the line 10N14W 06N30W 
06N53W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through the central sections of the
U.S.A. The southeasternmost part of the trough is moving through 
the E sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in 
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across all of the 
Gulf of Mexico, except near the trough that is in the NE quadrant 
of the area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N
northward from 90W eastward, associated with a squall line. 

A surface ridge passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, 
across central Florida, through the central Gulf of Mexico, to the
coast of Mexico near 20N. 

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL 
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF and KEIR.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KVBS, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KVQT, KSPR, KMDJ, and
KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR inland, mixed with some MVFR, in the Lower Valley/Deep
South, extending to the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains, to 
Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios, to the Houston metropolitan area 
and to Huntsville. LIFR from parts of the Houston metropolitan
area to Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper. LOUISIANA: LIFR in the 
SW and south central coastal sections. IFR/MVFR elsewhere from
Baton Rouge southward and southeastward. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR, mixed
with some IFR and MVFR from Natchez southward and southeastward.
ALABAMA: IFR and some MVFR from Dothan-to-Evergreen southward.
FLORIDA: LIFR in Crestview, and in the NW sections of the Panama 
City metropolitan area. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N76W to 23N68W. Another
branch of the trough passes through the Mona Passage, eventually 
to SE Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 26N65W, to a 1012 mb 
low pressure center that is near 21N67W. The surface trough 
continues from the 1012 mb low pressure center, through the Mona 
Passage, to 16N69W. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic 
Ocean from 17N to 30N between 55W and 73W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The dividing line of wind flow regimes is the 32N76W-to-SE 
Nicaragua upper level trough. Upper level SW wind flow covers 
everywhere that is to the east of the trough. Upper level NW wind 
flow is to the NW of the trough.

Rainshowers are comparatively more possible to the east of the 
trough, more precisely to the east of the line from the Mona
Passage to 14N75W and 09N78W. Rainshowers also are possible from 
15N northward from 76W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at 
26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.05 in 
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across 
the island. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal 
waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 
1600 feet, at 26/0300 UTC. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will 
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will 
be to the west of Hispaniola for about the first 24 hours. The
trough will move NE into the Atlantic Ocean eventually. The GFS 
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a trough will be to the west
of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. The
trough will move eastward during day one, and it will span the
island from day one into day two. Expect broad and general
westerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a trough will be to
the west of Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. Expect SW and W 
wind flow during the forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 23N29W. A
dissipating cold front is along 31N36W 27N43W 24N50W. 
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N 
northward between 25W and 50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N
northward between Africa and the dissipating cold front. A 1020 
mb high pressure center is near 30N30W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west
of the 32N37W 24N50W cold front, from 28N northward from 40W 
westward. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N63W.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT