000
AXNT20 KNHC 250439
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy 
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will continue over the southern
Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at
least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the 
region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical 
wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast 
to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern 
Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall 
maxima on Wednesday.

Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, 
moving westward around 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is enhancing strong
convection across Hispaniola and northern Venezuela.

A strong tropical wave is along 81W in the western Caribbean,
south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 19N and between
76W and 86W. This wave is forecast to reach the coasts of 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica on Wed, increasing the likelihood of 
showers and thunderstorms there.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N33W. 
The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 05N to 13N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diffluent pattern aloft and a weak upper level shortwave are 
helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the western 
and central Gulf west of 85W. A weak pressure gradient result in
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N and east of
93W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft (1-2 m). Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters will
continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sun night. Fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the
next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward 
across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to 
moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

Divergence aloft continues to support isolated to scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across much of the central and western
Caribbean, while drier conditions prevail in the eastern Caribbean.
A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces 
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central 
and eastern Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer satellite 
pass captured near gale-force easterly winds off northern Colombia.
Rough seas are present in the central Caribbean, while moderate 
seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to 
locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic 
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades across most of the central and and SW Caribbean 
through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate
to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late 
Thu, winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras
due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a 
broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region
offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough over the SW North Atlantic is producing
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 
65W. The heaviest convection is seen across the SE Bahamas. The 
Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic 
forecast waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed 
moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 25N and 
west of 45W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in the area 
described, with the highest seas occurring east of the Lesser 
Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds 
and moderate to rough seas are occurring north of 18N and east of 
25W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate 
seas are evident between 25W and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the entire
forecast area. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh 
trades along with moderate seas are expected south of 25N through 
the weekend, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola 
Wed through Fri night.

$$
Delgado