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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021111
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE  
FORECAST FOR 02/0600 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA... 
FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE 
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE 
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM 
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W...IN THE ITCZ. THE 
WAVE IS APPARENT IN A LONG-TERM OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 11N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 19N 
SOUTHWARD...PASSING ACROSS JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF 
THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM 
13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI 
AND JAMAICA. 

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 18N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING 
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 
8N25W 8N34W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 
11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N28W 8N36W 10N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES 
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD AN EASTERN 
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT 
REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N IN THE 
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 23N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
MEXICO FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS 
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N. 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA. 
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CURRENT 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE 
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. 

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS 
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH 
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND 
CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION 
THAT WAS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND 
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS 
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH 
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH 
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.   
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO 
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 
60W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 26N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS 
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE 
IN THE AREA OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 33N20W...TO 31N28W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...THROUGH 30N66W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Jul-2015 11:12:08 UTC