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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-76W ASSOCIATED 
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE EARLY 
THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 02N36W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 14W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W 
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT IS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N95W. 
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN THIS EVENING. A GENTLE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE 
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER 
THE W GULF WILL DRIFT E AND NE BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE 
CARIBBEAN 19N74W TO 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG 
THE SHEARLINE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF 
JAMAICA AND N OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 19N68W TO 16N71W WITH ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN 
ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR 
LINE WHICH KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO 
GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO 
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF 
A COLD FRONT W OF THE ISLAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES  
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT 
AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 
COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 40N63W. THE 
SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 31N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER 
DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A 
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION 
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF 
THE FRONTS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN 
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 27N62W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 57W-66W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 39N29W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N32W TO 27N34W. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO MERGE WITH THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE 
MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jan-2015 05:44:50 UTC