Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250007
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG GUYANA AND BRAZIL FROM 08N59W TO 
01N60W AND IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF 700 
MB WIND STREAMLINES ALSO DEPICTS THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS 
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-34W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-07N BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF 
WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NE GULF...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 28N82W 
TO 28N85W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA 
AND MAY BE EXTENDING ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SQUALL LINE 
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING INTO NE MEXICO IS 
GENERATING NUMEROUS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS 
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE GENERATING RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER 
GULF...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT SPREAD 
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER THE 
NE GULF DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WHILE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THUS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            
EXCEPT FOR THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...THE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH THAT 
IS ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. THERE IS 
HIGH HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH PARTICULARLY OVER THE 
GREATER ANTILLES. ENHANCEMENTS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER E CUBA...LA 
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE 
LESSER ANTILLES N OF 17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OBSERVED S OF 15N W OF 77W LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER COSTA RICA. 
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
IN PLACE SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE CARIBBEAN FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH THAT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE 
OVER THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE W AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHINESS AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE 
SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS LA HISPANIOLA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N EASTERN 
CONUS TO EASTERN CUBA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W 
ATLC FROM 30N73W TO 26N76W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM 30N78W TO 29N81W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN 
BAHAMAS JUST SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W-
74W. OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS 
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N36W TO 25N37W TO 22N43W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-36W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING 
ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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NR