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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 31.8N 72.2W AT 27/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 380 NM WEST OF BERMUDA...MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 67W-75W. LIGHTING DATA INDICATE 
TSTMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 70W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST WEST OF 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 20N24W TO 10N26W...MOVING 
W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT 
WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 21N34W TO 11N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND 
DUST ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 10N57W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE SOUTH OF 17N WHICH 
ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N-16N WEST OF 52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N68W TO 10N68W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE 
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 15N EAST OF 71W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N25W TO 11N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 11N40W AND CONTINUES TO 
12N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 12W-
19W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1010 MB 
LOW IS BEING ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W FROM WHICH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE ALONG 25N90W TO COASTAL NORTHERN CUBA 
NEAR 23N81W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM E-NE OF THE 
AXIS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NW GULF 
IS KEEPING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-94W...AFFECTING 
COASTAL SW LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE ON THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
TEXAS COASTLINE. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ON THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W TO 17N91W 
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. E-NE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 
KT DOMINATE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE N-NW WIND OF 5 KT IS 
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF IT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE NW 
GULF WILL MOVE SW INTO NE MEXICO BY THU MORNING. RAINSHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON THE CENTRAL BASIN 
SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
CONNECTS TO THIS LOW AND ENHANCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE NOTED N OF 16N BETWEEN 76W-81W...INCLUDING JAMAICA 
AND CENTRAL CUBA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON THE EASTERN 
BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS CREATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ON 
THE SE CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. THE PASSAGE OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT 
TRADES OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. SOUTHERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5-15 KT DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. A NEW 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY 
THURSDAY MORNING SUPPORTING MORE RAINSHOWERS IN THE E-SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATE ACROSS THE ISLAND 
SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL 
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER THE 
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVOID OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE 
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE TODAY MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS 
EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU MORNING. THIS WAVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO PRODUCE 
RAINSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND THU THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION 
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ITS RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO 
AFFECT THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
AND TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 68W-76W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS AS WELL AS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. 
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N48W 
AND A PAIR OF HIGHS N OF 30N E OF 34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 18:00:36 UTC