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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031135
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west
Atlantic will move to 32N50W along 25N65W to 24N80W with
southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 40W
starting at 04/0600 UTC. These winds will shift east with the
front through 05/0600 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N16W along 8N18W to 6N21W where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues along 5N27W 6N36W 7N46W to east of
surface trough near 9N50W. The surface trough embedded within
the ITCZ extends from 13N50W through 10N53W to 7N54W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 7N-10N between 31W-40W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 3N-7N between 24W-30W and from 5N-7N between 37W-47W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection dot the area from
south of 2N east of 3W, from 2N-6N between 10W-14W, and from 1N-
3N between 19W-23W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf this morning anchored in
the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A deep
layered trough over the western CONUS is inducing a broad area
of low pressure over northeast Mexico supporting a warm front
that extends from a 1008 mb low near 25N100W across south Texas
and into the Gulf waters near Corpus Christi along 28N96W 28N93W
to 29N92W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of the front to inland over Texas and
Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 60 nm along the north
Gulf coast west of Pensacola, Florida. Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds are south of the warm front that will persist
through today as the warm front moves inland over the northwest
Gulf coast. A surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high over
Missouri is shifting east into the west Atlantic. The remnants
of a stationary front in the Straits of Florida extending from
the west Atlantic through 25N80W to 23N84W are generating
isolated showers within 60 nm of the front including the Florida
Keys. The next front will move into the west Gulf early next
week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An upper ridge is anchored over Colombia dominating the
Caribbean this morning. At the surface: a surface trough extends
from the south coast of Hispaniola near 18N72W to 14N75W and a
second surface trough extends from over Colombia 10N75W to
11N82W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms dot the central Caribbean from 10N-18N between 70W-
82W. The surface trough extending from south of Hispaniola will
move west and weaken through tonight. Surface ridge over the
west Atlantic will shift south through early next week creating
fresh trade winds across the central and western Caribbean. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across
the south portion of the island this morning due to the surface
trough that extends across the central Caribbean from the south
coast near 18N72W. Lingering moisture and possible showers will
continue across the island through the tonight.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high over
Missouri is moving into the west Atlantic. An upper trough north
of 30N is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N59W
along 29N67W across the north Bahama Islands to 25N78W where it
becomes stationary into the Straits of Florida to near 25N80W.
This front is transecting an area of dry air, thus no shower
activity is noted. A weak surface trough is north of Puerto Rico
extending from 26N63W to 22N65W with isolated showers possible
within 120 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge covers the
central Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high near 25N44W. An
upper trough in the east Atlantic is supporting a second cold
front that extends through 32N13W over the western most Canary
Island to 27N24W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm east of the
front mainly over the Canary Islands. The west Atlantic cold
front will reach from 32N50W along 25N65W to 24N80W Sunday night
with southwest gale force winds east of the front. See Special
Features above. 

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ 
PAW