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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W AND 
EXTENDS TO 09N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N27W 
TO 06N37W TO 05N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
06N BETWEEN 25W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE US EXTENDS  
ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING 
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND W CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF ALLOWING FOR 
LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S 
OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-79W WHERE A FRESH SE BREEZE IS OBSERVED. 
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS 
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY THE 
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 19N74W KEEPING THE BASIN UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...                   

SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS S AS A COLD FRONT FROM A 1002 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 38N52W TO 29N60W TO 28N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 02N77W AND THEN INTO A WARM 
FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A 1021 MB  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N72W. TO THE EAST...A 
NEARLY STATIONARY 1000 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 33N43W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW TO 26N43W. THESE 
SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 
37N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 25W-39W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY THE PRESENCE 
OF THIS LOW IS GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 30W-55W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E 
ATLANTIC E OF 27W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING 
CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA



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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Dec-2014 23:48:17 UTC