000
AXNT20 KNHC 211043
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed May 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0940 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 29W, to the south of 12N, 
moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
noted near the wave axis, from 01.5N to 06N between 22W and 33W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 11N15W 
and extends southwestward to near 02.5N29W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05.5N33W to the mouth of the Amazon Basin near 00N50W.  
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, 
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N
between 02W and 18W, and scattered moderate from 04N to 10N
between 38W and 61W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fair weather persists across the Gulf basin this morning, ahead 
of a weak cold front that has moved near the southeast Texas 
coast. Weak high pressure located just east of the Bahamas extends
a ridge NW and into Georgia and north Florida. This pattern is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds across 
much of the Gulf W of 86W, with gentle winds across the Texas 
coastal waters. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft except 5 to 6 ft 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh winds prevail. Gentle 
anticyclonic winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail E of 86W. 
Scattered light showers are occurring across the Louisiana and 
Texas coastal waters, ahead of the front. Smoke intensity from 
agricultural fires over Mexico in recent days has increased to 
medium over the western Gulf, while light smoke density prevail 
across the rest of the basin W of 86W. 

For the forecast, the weak ridge extending into the Gulf this
morning will shift slowly eastward through tonight, and allow the
cold front to sink southward into the northern Gulf coastal waters
today, stall, then lift northward and dissipate through Wed 
night. Another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu through 
Thu night then dissipate. High pressure is expected to move into 
the NE Gulf this coming weekend and dominate the basin. SE winds 
will freshen in the western Gulf starting Sat night as a new
frontal systems moves into west Texas. E winds will pulse fresh 
to locally strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops
daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires
in southeastern Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf 
through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak 1016 mb high pressure is centered E of the Bahamas near
72W, and extends a weak ridge between Florida and 65W. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombia low 
is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the 
east and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
across the NW Caribbean, except from the the Gulf of Honduras
northward, where fresh to strong E to SE winds are present. Seas 
are mainly in the 3 to 6 ft range, except for the offshore waters 
of Colombia and Venezuela, and across the Gulf of Honduras, where
seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas in the lee of Cuba are in the 1 to 3 ft 
range. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring south of
11N between NW Colombia and Costa Rica. Widely scattered showers
and a few ml thunderstorms are depicted across the southeast
Caribbean, supported by a broad upper trough lingering across the
eastern basin. 

Of note: Casablanca Weather Station in Havana sets new May Temperature
Record. On Tue afternoon, the weather station recorded a maximum
temperature of 38.0 degrees Celsius, setting a new record for the
month of May. This surpasses the previous record of 37.3 degrees
Celsius, which was set on May 19, 2024. Abundant sunshine and S winds
helped to reach this temperature. 

For the forecast, the weak ridge north of the basin will shift 
slowly eastward through tonight, then  high pressure across the 
NE Atlantic will build a modest ridge north of the Caribbean 
basin Thu night through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in 
the central Caribbean will gradually strengthen and pulse to fresh
to strong this evening through the upcoming weekend and gradually
expand westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
across the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Moderate trades 
in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic will freshen Fri 
into the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1016 mb high pressure is located E of the Bahamas near 
26N62W. A pair of frontal troughs extend SW to NE and into the
central Atlantic, N of 23N between 64W and 53W. A deep layered
trough extends from the central Atlantic north of the area S-SW to
the northern Caribbean, and is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and east of these two frontal troughs to 50W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail W of 65W, where seas
are 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the lee of the Bahamas and in
the Florida coastal waters. Further east, a 1030 mb high pressure
is located SE of the Azores near 36N30W and dominates the 
remainder of the Atlantic to Africa. Moderate to fresh winds are 
present east of 40W, while fresh to strong winds prevail north of 
18N and east of 25W. Gentle to moderate winds prevailing 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range W of 60W, and 5 to 8 ft
elsewhere. Hazy skies in Africa dust prevails off of NW and 
western Africa to near 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure centered just E 
of the Bahamas will shift slowly eastward through tonight, while a
frontal trough across the NE zones will also shift eastward 
with moderate to fresh westerly winds ahead of it. High pressure
across the NE Atlantic will then build a modest ridge along about
26N into the Bahamas Thu through the weekend. The pressure 
gradient south of the high pressure will strengthen by the end of 
the week, allowing for fresh winds S of 22N. A pair of frontal 
troughs will move eastward across the northern waters later in the
week and upcoming weekend. 

$$
Stripling