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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W 
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WHICH WILL REACH GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10-12 FEET ACROSS THIS AREA. PLEASE 
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS AFRICA TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 6N18W TO 6N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
3N-8N BETWEEN 25W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH 
THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS 
THE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO 
THE GULF FROM THE EPAC AND W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N 
OF 27N AND W OF 90W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS 
COAST BY SAT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA ONCE AGAIN CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE 
FOR MORE INFORMATION. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ALONG WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND OF 
THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHALLOW 
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING 
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. GENTLE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE WITH FAIR WEATHER DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT FOR 
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE 
GREATER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING 
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...                   

A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR 
WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW 
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING WEAK...ISOLATED 
PASSING SHOWERS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME 
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE 
BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 44N64W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W THEN S 
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N 
OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-68W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS E OF THE FRONT 
CENTERED NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 24W-
46W. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO WESTERN CUBA. EXPECT 
FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN AND STALL 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN 
WHILE THE FRONT ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E 
WITH CONVECTION.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS



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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Dec-2014 05:55:03 UTC