AXNT20 KNHC 301748
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gale force winds are expected for the the Gulf of Venezuela
tonight. High pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with
the lower pressure over north Colombia will produce the minimal
gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela for 12 hours. Please
see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 10N29W
to 5N27W moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on the global models and
is embedded within a low amplitude surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
Broad tropical wave covers the central Tropical Atlantic between
37W-52W with the mean axis extending from 14N46W to 9N44W moving
west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a weak
700 mb trough as seen on the global models and is embedded
within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm of a line from
8N54W to 14N44W.
The tropical wave that was approaching the lesser Antilles no
longer has a surface reflection and was removed from the 30/1200
UTC surface analysis.
Tropical wave in the south Caribbean extends along 73W south of
14N to inland over South America moving west near 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as seen on
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N26W to 4N36W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 7N50W to South America near 6N56W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm along the
coast of west Africa from 11N-15N. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 6N-10N between 15W-27W and from 1N-
5N between 30W-40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad upper trough covers the east CONUS to the north Gulf
coast with a narrow upper trough extending Louisiana to along
the Texas coast supporting a cold front that remains inland over
the southeast CONUS. A surface trough extends from the Florida
panhandle near 30N85W extending over southeast Louisiana near
29N90W to a weak 1012 mb low near 28N92W then to the coast of
Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are north of a line from Cedar key, Florida along 26N88W 25N95W
to Texas near 27N97W. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic to across south Florida to the coast of Mexico near
Tampico. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf mostly clear
skies this afternoon. Surface ridge will persist into the
weekend while the low and surface trough linger across the
northwest of north-central Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over
the Yucatan will return during evening hours, then dissipate
during the early morning hours.
An upper low near the Turks and Caicos extends an upper trough
over east Cuba to Puerto Rico into the Caribbean to near 12N76W
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
from 17N-20N between 70W-82W including portions of Hispaniola.
The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama along 9N.
The easterly trade winds are banking low clouds with scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms along the coast of
west Panama and Costa Rica west of 81W to the border of
Nicaragua. This is leaving the remainder of the Caribbean with
mostly clear skies this afternoon. Tropical wave will move
across the south Caribbean through the remainder of the week.
The high pressure over the southwest Atlantic combined with the
lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the majority of the central Caribbean through the
weekend with minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela
The upper low near the Turks and Caicos is generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the south
portions of Hispaniola this afternoon. The upper low near the
Turks and Caicos will persist through Friday night before
shifting west on Saturday. This will produce fresh to locally
strong winds along the north coast of Hispaniola tonight and
again Friday night. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
remain a possibility.
An upper trough over the east CONUS extends into the northwest
Atlantic north of 32N supporting a cold front that is well north
of the discussion area but is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 31N between 72W-79W. A small
upper ridge is anchored just east of south Florida near 26N79W
extending a ridge axis northeast to beyond 32N70W. This upper
ridge is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-31N between 77W-80W.
A strong upper low is centered just north of the Turks and
Caicos near 22N71W and is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 21N-25N between 69W-73W. A shortwave
upper trough is over the east-central Atlantic supporting a
surface trough that extends from 30N44W to 27N47W generating
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 27N-
30N between 42W-46W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated
by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb high west-northwest of
the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N52W along
28N70W across south Florida to over the central Gulf of Mexico.
The surface ridge will persist through weekend. The upper low
near the Turks and Caicos will persist through Friday night
producing fresh to locally strong winds between the islands and
Hispaniola tonight and again Friday night.
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