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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 02N40W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS 
THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1023 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NW ALABAMA...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA TO 28N90W WITH 
NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING. THIS 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN AND THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT WILL STALL...THEN 
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY...FAIR WEATHER AND 
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT DOMINATING S OF 
27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 66W EXTENDS 
SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING 
ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO 
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH SW OF JAMAICA ALONG 18N78W TO 10N82W 
THAT ENHANCES SHOWERS BETWEEN ITS AXIS AND THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
COASTLINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO NORTHERN PANAMA. A SHALLOW 
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO 
POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY 
MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. N OF 17N AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
WINDS ARE FROM THE NE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT.  TRADES OF 15-20 
KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL BASIN INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN 
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA... 

AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH 
TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN 
DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF FOG ARE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF 
THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 
30N57W TO 22N65W WITH TAIL REACHING NW HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE 
COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N57W TO 21N62W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 21N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N37W 
TO 21N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-27N 
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS



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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Jan-2015 00:06:29 UTC