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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061142
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W 
OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO 
23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 
94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC 
TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE 
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260 
NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...      

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO 
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT 
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE 
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR 
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG 
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. 
THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS 
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO 
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE 
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT 
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND 
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS 
AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND 
CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR 
MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE 
GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. 
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Friday, 06-Mar-2015 11:42:49 UTC