AXNT20 KNHC 300542
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across
the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to
gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 06N26W to 15N27W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 25W-32W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the Monsoon
Trough region. As a result...scattered moderate convection is
confined within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N22W to
Tropical wave extends from 07N53W to 17N53W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 50W-60W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 48W-51W.
Tropical wave extends from 04N67W to 15N68W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North
Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 30N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is across Venezuela from 02N-09N between 64W-69W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
06N25W to 05N33W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N33W to 08N43W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm either side of the axis between 18W-38W...and from
09N-13N between 42W-48W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with a broad base dipping
to 30N. The west-southwesterly flow aloft and maximum diffluence
south of the troughing is supporting weak surface troughing
extending from southern Georgia to coastal Louisiana and along
the Texas coastline to Corpus Christi this evening. Weakening mid-
level energy noted over the NW Gulf waters also supports a surface
trough extending from 25N93W to 29N92W. Given the favorable
dynamics aloft and surface boundaries in place... widely scattered
showers are occurring N of 27N E of 90W...and N of 25N W of 90W.
Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends across the southern
Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf with generally gentle to
occasional moderate anticyclonic winds expected through Thursday
as ridge axis remains nearly stationary. The frontal troughing to
the north will also remain stationary through the remainder of the
An upper level ridging extends over the western Caribbean W of
78W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment aloft
supporting widely scattered showers and tstms generally S of 19N
between 81W-89W...including inland portions of Central America.
The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very
broad troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the
Turks and Caicos Islands near 22N72W. The troughing supports
isolated showers across Hispaniola this evening. In addition...a
tropical wave along 68W is introducing isolated showers to the NE
Caribbean S of 15N E of 70W. The wave is expected to move west
and increase precipitation probabilities during the next few days
for the south-central portion of the basin. Finally...while
moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin...fresh
to strong trades persist S of 17N between 64W-80W due to a
strengthened pressure gradient across the central Caribbean.
Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Currently...isolated showers continue this evening. Southwesterly
flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low
is centered north of the island near 22N72W. This environment
along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote
isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.
Weak frontal troughing is analyzed across the SE CONUS and
portions of the far NW Atlc discussion waters providing focus for
isolated showers and tstms generally W of a line from 26N80W to
32N72W. Surface ridging is expected to build west during the next
12 to 24 hours. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored on a 1037 mb high centered
NW of the Azores near 42N38W.
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