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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                  
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 29.7N 71.5W AT 27/0000 UTC 
OR ABOUT 380 NM WSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 70W-73W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N-34N BETWEEN 65W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ 
WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N20W TO 23N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 12W-22W AND 
A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT 
OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W TO 22N32W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. 
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST 
LAYER NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION FROM 12N-
14N BETWEEN 27W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N52W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 
45W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO 18N63W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 59W-66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 
12N22W TO 14N35W TO 14N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO 13N47W TO 09N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
GULF NEAR 24N89W THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS 
EVENING. WHILE THE RIDGING ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL 
STABILITY AT THE SURFACE...THE STABILITY IS COMPROMISED ALONG A 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO 
24N88W TO 27N92W TO 28N96W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG 
THE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE DAYTIME INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS 
EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY EARLY FRIDAY...ANY AREA OF LOWER 
PRESSURE THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DRIFT INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO 
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH S-SE FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS 
THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                    
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
GENERALLY W OF 70W WITH MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
BETWEEN 70W-82W AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED 
TSTMS...AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AWAY 
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CENTERED IN THE SW 
NORTH ATLC REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LARGELY OCCURRING 
TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 
22N79W TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-85W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. FINALLY...A WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVE EXTENDS FROM SAINT KITTS TO TRINIDAD PROVIDING INCREASED 
CLOUDINESS N OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-69W.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
WITH THE ISLAND INFLUENCED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND 
MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM HURRICANE 
CRISTOBAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE THIS 
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ISLAND. CONDITIONS 
ARE VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL PEELS OFF TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN...AS PRECIPITATION 
CONTINUES...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO BE 
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 34N66W IN THE VICINITY OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 
21N77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Aug-2014 23:47:06 UTC