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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N21W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N22W.  THE 
WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT AROUND 5 KT. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS 
BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION TO THE AREA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY S OF 16N 
BETWEEN 18W-24W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 21N52W TO 10N53W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE 
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-
19N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 21N73W TO 12N74W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH MODERATE 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...NO 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT DUE TO DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N18W TO 
09N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 10N49W. OTHER THAN 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDING TO 
THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH 
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN 
GULF WATERS. THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS 
MOST OF THE BASIN. AT LOW LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF NEAR 26N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
REMAINS S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-82W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W 
BRINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN GULF ENHANCING 
CONVECTION.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTH-WESTERN HALF OF 
THE CARIBBEAN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 11N77W N OF 
PANAMA INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA NEAR 18N82W. 
DESPITE THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN 
DUE TO DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL 
WAVE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS PRESENT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF 
PANAMA SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 
11N BETWEEN 76W-82W. EXPECT THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION 
ADVECTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE 
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS W HAITI WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER 
TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME 
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...REFER TO THE SECTION 
ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W PAIRED WITH 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N51W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS 
THE W ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW 
ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRECEDING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM THE E GULF WATERS TO 28N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-36N W OF 68W. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N36W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W BRINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Sep-2014 17:44:03 UTC