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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031129
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 33.2W AT 03/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 600 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 7 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 30W-33W. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 03/0600 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE 1012 MB LOW PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N24W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N23.5W TO 10N23W MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 23W-26W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 48W FROM 7N-14N 
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATED 
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF 
MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N80W TO 10N82W  
MOVING W-SW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES 
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N W OF THE 
WAVE TO JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 11N18W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 
12N23.5W CONTINUING ALONG 13N30W 10N41W TO 7N49W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 30W-41W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E 
OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-9N E OF 17W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
INTO THE GULF NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
25N95W TO 22N94W WHERE IT MEETS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS 
FROM 24N94W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF LINE FROM PANAMA CITY 
FLORIDA ALONG 23N89W TO 19N91W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 27N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SE GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 
28N85W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALIGN NW TO SE TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRI THEN SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE SE CENTRAL GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO 
TO 17N74W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N84W CONTINUING TO 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ALONG 10N81W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 
10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W 
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF E PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN 
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL 
PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AS THE WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS. THE SW 
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRI MORNING.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 
17N74W THEN THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N84W. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME N/S ORIENTATED TONIGHT GIVING THE ISLAND N 
FLOW ALOFT FRI AND SAT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT MORNING 
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER 
THE W ATLC TO 70W WITH A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING JUST 
OFF THE SE COAST GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N65W. A BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-
65W SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 
32N47W ALONG 26N54W TO 24N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 46W-50W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM SE OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 27N BETWEEN 59W-69W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E ATLC IS 
BEING INTRUDED BY T.S. FRED AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH 
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS 
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE 
NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Sep-2015 11:29:14 UTC