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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311007
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01S28W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERS OF 1023 MB OVER 
THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W AND 1022 MB OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N74W.  
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. E TO 
SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE S AND W GULF. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE N AND NE GULF. DRY 
AIR AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED 
WITH A DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING 
SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...INCLUDING THE 
CAYMAN ISLANDS. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN TRADE WIND MOISTURE E OF 70W INCLUDING 
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT 
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE 
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY 
THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS 
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CORNER 
OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE 
ISLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERS OF 1023 MB OVER 
THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W AND 1022 MB OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N74W. 
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N47W AND 
EXTENDS TO 23N60W TO 21N68W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO HAITI NEAR 20N73W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 70 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N36W TO 24N39W. THIS TROUGH WAS A 
REFLECTION OF A UPPER LOW NEAR 29N30W THAT IS NOW BEING ABSORBED 
INTO A LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA OF 
DISCUSSION LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
24N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD 
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL THEN 
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT OFF THE E US COAST WILL MOVE 
INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N FL COAST TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Mar-2015 10:07:39 UTC