Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N10W SW TO 01S17W TO 04S27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS 
NEAR 04S27W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 
06W AND 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO THE EQUATOR W OF 
18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS SW TO A 
BASE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATE A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC...THUS 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THESE REGIONS AND THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO E OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N87W. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH INTO 
THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 25N90W. WIND 
FLOW FROM THE N-NE OF 15 KT IS S OF 24N E OF 90W...INCREASING TO 
20 KT OVER THE SE BASIN E OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N87W. WIND 
FLOW FROM THE S-SE OF 15 KT IS ON THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. 
LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. 
SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW  
ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N77W 
SW TO 17N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG 
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT 
SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE 
FRONT N OF 19N. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA 
THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA S OF 15N. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR 
DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR 
WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE ON THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE FRONT SUPPORT NW FLOW UP TO 20 KT W OF 79W. 
SIMILARLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE COVERING 
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORT 
TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. LIGHTER VARIABLE 
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER 
HISPANIOLA SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL START TO DISSIPATE SW TO 
HONDURAS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 

HISPANIOLA... 

SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS 
OVER HAITI...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND MONDAY 
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS. THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THAT DAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC 
WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N64W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 
21N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO EASTERN 
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN 
A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER SW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO 
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W 
SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N35W SW TO 23N41W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 175 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 
REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR 
WEATHER. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Mar-2015 06:03:06 UTC