000
AXNT20 KNHC 271048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 01N to 10N near 35W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots.
Abundant moisture S of 10N and diffluent flow east of an upper-
level trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms
from 03N to 10N between 28W and 38W.  

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 69W, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave has moved into a
slightly drier environment per Total Precipitable Water imagery
as well as a strong wind shear envrionment. This has diminished
the convection to widely scattered showers over the eastern and
central Caribbean. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau close to 12N16W SW to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N21W to 05N32W, and then resumes near 04N37W to 03N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 10W and
18W, and from 02N to 07N between 38W and 53W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across Florida into the eastern half of
the basin while lower pressures dominate W of 90W. The resultant
pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds
over the south-central and SW basin. In the far NE Gulf, between
the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana, winds are gentle to moderate
from the SW ahead of an approaching front. Seas are moderate
basin-wide as indicated by recent altimeter data. Otherwise,
middle-level diffluent flow support scattered to isolated showers
over the NW Gulf N of 26N. 

For the forecast, high pressure and ridging will continue to 
dominate across the basin trough Fri, thus maintaining a 
generally weak pressure pattern over the region. Moderate to 
fresh S to SE winds W of 86W will diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds late today, but will resume again Thu evening through Fri 
night. Seas will be slight to moderate basin-wide during the
forecast period. A weak cold front will move across the far NE 
Gulf today and tonight, followed by gentle to moderate W to NW 
winds. Otheriwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse near the 
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons 
and at night through Wed, then pulse to mostly fresh speeds 
afterwards. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature over the Caribbean is a tropical wave that is
moving across the central basin along with moderate to fresh winds
and moderate seas. Convection associated with this wave has
diminished due to a strong shear environment and movement into a 
slightly drier region. See the Tropical Waves Section for further
details. The pressure gradient between a broad ridge N of the
region and lower pressure associated with both the tropical wave
and the E Pacific eastern extension of the monsoon trough
continues to support moderate to fresh easterlies E of 80W. This
gradient is also supporting fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas across the basin are moderate, in the 4 to 7 ft
range. 

For the forecast, high pressure and associated ridging over the W
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the 
eastern, central and far NW Caribbean through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will resume tonight
and will also develop in the south-central basin as a tropical 
wave moves over the waters S of Hispaniola. These winds will shift
to the SW Caribbean through early Wed morning as the tropical 
wave continues to move westward. Strong gusty winds, lightning and
moderate to rough seas will likely accompany this wave. Moderate 
to fresh winds are forecast for the central and eastern basin the
remainder forecast period while gentle to moderate trades will 
dominate the waters of the NW Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For information on all the tropical waves, see the Tropical Waves
Section.

A surface trough extends from 30N55W to 24N62W. The remainder 
subtropical Atlantic W and E of the trough is under the influence 
of a broad surface ridge that is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 33W. 
Moderate to fresh trades are also between 30W and the Lesser 
Antilles. Otherwise, middle-level diffluent flow support scattered
showers and isolated tstms, ahead of the trough, from 22N to 28N 
between 47W and 56W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move E of the 
area tonight. Otherwise, high pressure and associated ridging will
prevail across most of the area through the week. By tonight, the
high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a weakening cold front
that will move across the waters north of 27N Tue into midweek. 
Moderate to fresh southerly winds will precede the front along 
with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Ramos