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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 
72.0W...OR ABOUT 385 NM TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 
27/0600 UTC. CRISTOBAL IS STATIONARY AT THIS MOMENT. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N 
TO 33N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED 
STRONG ARE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF CRISTOBAL JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA 
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N TO 35N FROM 61W TO 68W. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN 
BERMUDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...   

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20/21W SOUTH OF 22N 
MOVING W AT 10-15KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TO NO 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD 
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-
12N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52/53W SOUTH OF 20N 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63/64W SOUTH OF 20N 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 15N BETWEEN 61W 
AND 67W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 
NEAR 10N14W...TO 9N21W 12N28W AND 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 12N34W TO 12N44W TO 13N52W TO 11N64W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 8W AND 15W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. OTHER CONVECTION IS 
RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

THE GULF OF MEXICO...    

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS 
THE ENTIRE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS 
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA  
...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS 
THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN. 

NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20KT IS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 
UNDER 10KT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEMK...KOPM AND 
KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...              

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE 
PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. SOME 
OF THE WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. SOME OF THE 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS RELATED TO THE BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW REGIME THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. OTHER CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES 
DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL 
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING 
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE AND 1.79 
IN TEGUCIGALPA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT S OF 14N 
BETWEEN 70 AND 73W.

...HISPANIOLA...     

INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE 
AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL 
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD 
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES 
TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM 
THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL 
PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE PASSES.  

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...TO 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N32W...TO 20N41W TO 
15N50W...TO 10N54W. 

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OTHER THAN 
THAT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
CRISTOBAL AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
CRISTOBAL. 

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N24W 
10N54W TROUGH.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
33N47W. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF 
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N 
TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.  

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W FROM 15N TO 18N AND 
WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS UP TO 240 NM...PRODUCING E WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W 
AND 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND E 
SWELL. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ASL/MT



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 06:00:22 UTC