000
AXNT20 KNHC 080607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu May 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and 
extends southwestward to 03N18W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues 
from 02N24W to 02N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing 
from 01S to 07N between 00W and 21W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 36W and 53W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extending the Florida Panhandle to across the 
north-central offshore zones to just offshore Tampico and 
Veracruz is supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated 
thunderstorms with gusty winds to near gale force north of the 
front in the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastal waters.  
Ahead of the front, over the offshores N of the Yucatan Peninsula
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, winds are moderate to fresh
from the ESE. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere away from the
frontal boudary. Recent altimeter data show moderate to rough 
seas in the western half of the basin, being the highest seas over
the Texas offshore waters. Buoy data show 3 to 6 ft E of 90W. 

For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary through
Thu, then begin to move SE across the Gulf waters by Fri morning,
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the 
cold front will extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near 
Veracruz, Mexico by Sat morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to 
the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front through 
Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is 
creating hazy conditions in some sections of the W and SE Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent
the Bermuda High from building into the basin, and is maintaining
a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is resulting 
in gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, 
except for localized fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of 
Honduras and fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, and in 
the lee of Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, 
except 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are
ongoing offshore Colombia and Panama and in the SE Caribbean. 

For the forecast, pulsing east to southeast winds to fresh to 
strong speeds are expected N of Honduras at night through Fri 
night. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are 
forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, including in
the Tropical N Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the 
Atlantic high pressure builds westward. As a result, winds will 
start to increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off
Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through 
the remainder of the upcoming weekend and into next week. 
Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the eastern 
Caribbean through at least Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a 1013 mb low pressure centered 
near 27N67.5W with associated trough and high pressure located 
over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to SE 
winds and moderate to rough seas north and east of the low center.
Scattered showers and tstms are E of this trough and another
trough moving across the Leeward Islands, covering an area from
16N to 27N between 46W and 61W. The remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge that is being intersected by a cold front that extends from
31N25W to 30N44W. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds and rough seas
to 10 ft follow this front. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere
along with moderate seas.  

For the forecast west of 55W, marine conditions associated with
the low and trough SW of Bermuda will continue to affect the NE
offshore waters on Thu before diminishing by Fri. The low 
pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W over the next 
couple of days, and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A 
stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. 
coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front on Thu, 
then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the week and 
into the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Ramos