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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N29W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 20 KT. 
THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND 
COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB JET MAXIMUM TO 
THE EAST OF THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 06N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 18N66W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 20N57W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL ENERGY SHEARING TO THE NE DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO THE 
WEST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 62W-73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N19W TO 06N21W TO 04N36W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N84W. WHILE A WEAK MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS 
EVENING...MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF BASIN RESULTING IN MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING 
CONTINUES TO HOLD WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAILING 
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED 
TO CLIP THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY 
AND LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W/81W. MOSTLY DRY 
CONDITIONS ALOFT ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGHING...HOWEVER MINIMAL MID-
LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE GENERATING 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT 
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST... 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE TROUGHING. THIS DIFFLUENT ZONE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS 
AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N84W. LOOKING 
AHEAD...EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 
FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS TO A RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE 
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CREATES A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY 
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W AND THE 
PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
ZONE OVER THE ISLAND AND SURROUNDING REGION WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO 
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH 
ATLC NEAR 31N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
26N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 30N66W 
AND SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N81W. TO THE 
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...MID-LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS MORE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 
22N-29N BETWEEN 51W-64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED 
WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 05:52:25 UTC