000
AXNT20 KNHC 211130
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from
04N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either 
side of the wave from 04N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from
05N to 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection trails the wave from 08N to 11N between
41W and 44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 57W from 05N
to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 240 nm east of the wave axis from 
07N to 10N.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W
south of 18N to across southern Panama and into the eastern 
Pacific Ocean to near 05N. Numerous strong convection is
south of 11N from along the coast of Colombia to over southern 
Panama. This activity is being further enhanced by the eastern 
extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough that reaches to northern
Panama and northwest Colombia. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along 12N17W and 
continues south-southwestward to 10N19W and southwestward to
06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 07N44W and from 07N46W 
to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical 
waves described above, scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Atlantic high pressure ridging along 29N reaches westward to the
central Gulf. The related gradient is allowing for light and 
variable winds over the NE Gulf and for moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds over most of the western section of the basin. 
Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft 
over the central Gulf and lower seas of 3 ft or less are over 
the NE Gulf.

Ample deep tropical atmospheric moisture continues over the 
majority of the western Gulf as a very large upper-level 
anticyclone over Mexico has its eastern periphery over the 
western Gulf. This set-up is helping to keep active scattered to 
numerous strong showers and thunderstorms from 18N to 24N and 
west of 94W to along the Mexican coast.

For the forecast, the deep tropical moisture will continue to 
surge north-northwestward across the western Gulf through the 
weekend, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and 
locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening during the next several days north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal 
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are 
expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend 
before diminishing early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressures in the southern Caribbean and in 
northwest Colombia is allowing for an extensive area of fresh to 
strong trades along with rough seas to exist across the south- 
central sections of the basin as highlighted by overnight 
scatterometer satellite data passes. Near-gale force winds are 
confined to offshore waters of Colombia. The scatterometer data 
also shows gentle to moderate trades are over the northwest part 
of the basin north of 18N. Seas with these winds are in the 
moderate range. Light to gentle trades are in the southwest part 
of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. Moderate 
seas are with these winds.

Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid to upper-level trough
over the western Caribbean north of about 16N and west of 75W.
An upper jet stream branch runs southwest to northeast ahead of 
the trough from near northwest Colombia to over Hispaniola and 
to the central Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level jet dynamics working 
on a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment in place is 
resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to be 
north of 16N between 70W and 74W, including Haiti and the 
western section of the Dominican Republic. Other similar 
activity is over the waters between eastern Cuba, Haiti and 
Jamaica. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are over 
the waters from 15N to 20N west 80W to just inland the coast of 
southern Belize as well as along and just offshore the northern 
coast of Honduras. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades over the central part of the basin through early 
next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia 
tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will
prevail. A tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles 
near 57W will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, move across the 
eastern Caribbean through Sun night, then across the central part 
of the basin through the middle of next week. Scattered showers 
and a few thunderstorms are expected to accompany the wave. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high center is analyzed at 25N62W while a 1025 mb high 
center is to its northeast near 28N35W. High pressure covers 
the Atlantic basin north of about 14N. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the 
subtropics and tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trades
to confined to south of 25N between 65W and 78W, and south of 22N
east of 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these trades west of 60W
and 6 to 8 ft east of 60W due to a combination of wind generated
waves and long-period north swell propagating through those 
waters. Generally, gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft west of 52W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 52W
except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in long-period north swell 
north of 25n and east of 27N.

A couple of weak trough are analyzed: The first one extends from 
31N54W to 28N65W, and the second one from 31N39W to near 26N50W.
satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms 
along and near these troughs, namely north of 26N between 40W
and 63W. This activity is being further supported by a pair of 
upper-level lows, one of which is near 28N65W and the other one 
is near 29N44W. These lows are along an east to west trough axis 
seen on water vapor imagery.

Another upper-level low is identified near the central Bahamas.
To its east, the northern extension of a jet stream branch 
extends from the central Caribbean northeastward to near 25N69W. 
Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible 
scattered showers underneath them are between these features.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak tough will slowly move SE 
across the northeast part of the forecast waters this morning, 
then stall into Mon as weak low pressure forms along it. The low 
may shift northeastward while the trough begins to drift back to 
the west through Wed night, and as weak low possibly forms 
offshore the southeastern United States. Otherwise, high 
pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with 
moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over 
the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds 
elsewhere. 

$$
Aguirre