623 
AXNT20 KNHC 171645
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, from 09N to  
22N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Convection previously
associated with this wave has dissipated.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over
Hispaniola and adjacent waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the southern portion of the wave where it is
interacting with the monsoon in the waters near Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau along 16.5W and continues west southwestward to
09N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to the coast of Suriname 
near 06N55W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 06N to 11N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 11N between 
30W and 58W.


...GULF OF AMERICA...

Broad low pressure (AL93) depicted on radar and satellite data 
centered just S of the Mississippi coast near 30N89W in the
northern Gulf remains disorganized, with numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection displaced west and southwest of the
center, within 90 nm miles of the Louisiana coast. Outside of
locally higher winds and seas in the strong convection, fresh
winds and moderate seas are present with this low. There is a low
chance of this system developing into a tropical depression later
today or tonight before it moves westward into Louisiana.

Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure gradient over the basin is
supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 ft or less.
Aside from the convection associated with the aforementioned low,
the Gulf of void of significant thunderstorms today. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will 
occur north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of 
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week. Otherwise, 
high pressure building over the northeastern Gulf this weekend 
will support gentle to moderate winds and seas across the rest of 
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for information of the 
tropical waves moving across the basin. 

Aside from the convection from the tropical waves, relatively dry
air is suppressing thunderstorms, and tradewind flow dominates.
fresh to strong easterly winds dominate the central basin,
including the Windward Passage, with near gale force winds
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, where the pressure
gradient between the Bermuda ridge and lower pressure in the SW
Caribbean is tightest. Moderate to fresh winds dominate elsewhere
in the basin, except in the Lee of Cuba, where gentle to moderate
east winds prevail. Seas generated by the strong winds are 8 to 11
ft in the south-central and SW basin, with 3 to 6 ft seas in the
NW basin, and 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will occur in the 
central Caribbean and Windward Passage today, with strong winds 
expanding into the west-central basin tonight as high pressure 
strengthens in the central Atlantic. Periods of near-gale force 
winds are likely in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northern
Colombia nightly into this weekend. Rough seas will occur over 
the central and southwestern Caribbean through this weekend, with 
locally very rough seas expected near and west of the strongest 
winds. Winds will diminish slightly on Sat and Sun, with seas 
subsiding late Sun into next week. In the Gulf of Honduras, 
pulsing fresh winds will occur each afternoon and evening through 
Sat. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas 
will prevail over the eastern basin into next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for information of the 
tropical wave in the eastern basin. 

An upper level low centered off the NW Bahamas is interacting with
low level moisture shearing NW and away from the western Caribbean 
tropical wave, resulting in scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms affecting the NW Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic
waters and into the southeast Florida coastal waters. Farther 
northeast, another upper level low situated east of Bermuda 
supports a scattered showers north of 28N and between 53W and 64W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated
by a subtropical ridge extending from a 1025 mb high just east of
Bermuda. Fresh east winds are noted between the Bahamas and Puerto
Rico, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere S of 25W and W of
50W, moderate E winds and seas dominate. 

In the north-central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
30N35W to 23N47W. Convection along this weakening boundary has
dissipated. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and 
seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 27N and east of 18W. In the 
rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh E to
SE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 27N 
through Fri as a strong pressure gradient prevails between low 
pressure over the south-central Caribbean and high pressure in the
central Atlantic. Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and
through the Windward Passage into early Sat. Winds will diminish 
slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens and drifts 
westward over the western Atlantic. Farther north and west, 
moderate SE winds will occur off the coast of Florida today, west 
of 75W, as low pressure in the north-central Gulf moves westward. 
Elsewhere, south of 20N, moderate to occasionally fresh trade 
winds and moderate seas will prevail through this weekend. 

$$
Konarik