Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 012353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...NW GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 
30N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. THE GALE IS W OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM 31N48W TO 22N60W TO 21N75W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION 
RANGE FROM 12 TO 20 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
EVENING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE SE U.S. COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS 
REGION WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY 
MONDAY MORNING ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W 
AND 78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 16 FT. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING...THEN RESUME EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
EVENING ON THE WESTERN GULF FROM 22N TO 24N W OF 95W AND A COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 29N83W TO 21N95W TO 18N94W. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUESDAY EVENING. SEE THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
1N40W TO 2N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N73W. 15-20 KT 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE E GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE W GULF S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 94W-
100W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AIR 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 70'S. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH WESTERLY 
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF A LINE FROM 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER 
THE GULF LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO 
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH 
CONVECTION...AND A GALE W OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT IS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N60W TO 17N65W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE OVER PUERTO 
RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS 
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS. 

HISPANIOLA... 

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF 
HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER 
IN THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
31N73W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N48W TO 
22N60W TO 21N75W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N50W TO 
18N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT N OF 22N 
BETWEEN 43W-47W. THE GALE IS W OF A COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 
FURTHER E...A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N35W. A 1030 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
24N BETWEEN 45W-60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP 
MONDAY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA