Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...AT 23/0300 UTC...WAS 
NEAR 13.4N 51.4W...ABOUT 590 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC 
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN VENEZUELA 
AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST 
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO 
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W 
AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 
10 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N43W 17N42W 13N40W... 
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W 
AND 43W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE 
SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS 
PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...CENTRAL NICARAGUA...AND 
WESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
17N80W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS EL SALVADOR AND 
ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN 
MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND 94W FROM 16N TO 17N. THE 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THAT AREA DURING THE 
LAST FEW HOURS. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA 
NEAR 19N16W TO 13N20W 9N24W AND 7N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
7N32W TO 5N37W AND 6N41W...AND ALONG 10N50W 9N61W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 
35W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 
32W AND 37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN 
MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
MEANDERS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND 
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 88W AND 96W IN 
EASTERN TEXAS. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO 29N56W...TO 32N77W...ACROSS 
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING 
ICAO STATIONS...KXIH...KMDJ...AND KIPN. A CLOUD CEILING IS AT 
6500 FEET AT KDLP. 

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL 
PLAINS AND NEARBY AREAS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND IN TEXAS. 
A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SUCH AS IN 
THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN 
AREA. A CEILING AT 6500 FEET IS BEING OBSERVED AT ANGLETON/LAKE 
JACKSON. NO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE 
IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 25N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
17N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 
NM RADIUS OF 19N75W BETWEEN CUBA AND HAITI...AND ALONG 80W FROM 
20N TO 21N OFF THE COAST OF CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA... TO 
PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...AND BEYOND 8N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 
11N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE TO 
THE NORTH OF PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN 
NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO 
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN 
IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N80W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...ENDING UP 
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ANY AMOUNT OF HIGH 
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AS THE 
CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES MORE AND MORE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA...FROM A 28N74W ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO HAITI BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST 
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFS 
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE 
AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN 
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE 
WIND FLOW...FROM 73W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN 
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE 
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ 
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.  

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 27N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
35N46W TO 30N45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH 34N25W TO 26N34W AND 25N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 20N 
NORTHWARD FROM 30W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN 
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE 
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ 
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.99 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N38W...TO 29N56W...TO 32N77W...ACROSS 
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT