Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121037
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING NW 
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF NEAR SUNRISE AND EXTEND 
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY THU ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE SAME GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE 
GULF INTO THE W ATLC. GALE WARNING WILL BE FOR THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU 
AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W TO 2N18W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N10W TO 1N18W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF FROM E TENNESSEE INTO THE 
GULF OVER THE BIG BEND AREA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT  
EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA ALONG 29N85W TO 25N90W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N E OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PATCHES OF 
DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE 
COAST OF THE W GULF FROM MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO TUXPAN 
MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS 
THIS MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 
ENTERING THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA 
BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TODAY AND EXIT THE GULF ON 
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW 
GULF THU NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON FRI. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT REACHING 
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE 
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW 
LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 62W-77W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU THEN DISSIPATING FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRESH N 
WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 
SAT. 

HISPANIOLA...                                               
PATCH OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND IN THE 
GULF OF GONAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
THROUGH SAT. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
EARLY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH 
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W 
ATLC/CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT REACHING HISPANIOLA ON FRI WHERE IT 
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH SAT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS 
THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC AND 
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS 
THE REGION NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N45W TO 21N57W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TONIGHT THEN 
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING AND 
WEAKEN FROM 32N59W TO HISPANIOLA ON FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND 
FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW