Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 02N35W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. AT THE 
SURFACE...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N82W SUPPORTS 
FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. MAINLY E TO 
SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME 
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO 
THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED 
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
72W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. NE WINDS OF 
15 TO 25 KT COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. E TO NE TRADE WINDS 
MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 79W. OVER 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A 
SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO 20N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT 
SANTIAGO TO BAINET AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. MOSTLY 
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND 
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL MERGE WITH THE 
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR 
THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER 
THE ENTIRE ISLAND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS A STORM 
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 36N60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 
31N60W TO 25N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THIS COLD FRONT IS 
BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
29N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH 
IS JUST EAST OF THESE FRONTS EXTENDING FROM 26N60W TO 20N62W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD 
FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO 20N40W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING 
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE OF 1039 MB CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PROVIDES 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD 
FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL MERGE WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
EXITS THE SE US INTO THE W ATLANTIC.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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LATTO