Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GALE WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC 
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO 25N64W TO 
20N73W. N OF 27.5N WITHIN 210 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 
KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 65W W WINDS 30 TO 35 
KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N16W TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 1N20W TO 1N34W TO 1N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6S-0N BETWEEN 1W-9W AND 
FROM 5S-6N BETWEEN 18W-26W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 2W-
10W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT 
WHICH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS INTO 
THE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE 
NE GULF NEAR 30N85W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES 
MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 21N W OF 
89W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SW ALONG THE COASTLINE OF TEXAS 
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE 
NW BASIN LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE EASTERLY FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN BASIN WHERE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY. 
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE 
NW GULF BY TUE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
NO NOTABLE FEATURES OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS AN EARLIER 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN HAS DISSIPATED. THE 
REMAINDER PORTION OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH 
ITS TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. REMNANT 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A MOIST AIRMASS IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
IN THIS REGION TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT DAY RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO REMAIN FROM HISPANIOLA TO 
PUERTO RICO. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                   
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE 
NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT ALREADY DISSIPATED IS 
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE PASSAGE 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER 
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 24N66W TO 20N73W 
BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH W OF 50W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT NEAR OUR NORTH BORDER. SEE 
ABOVE. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS COLD 
FRONT ALONG 30N23W TO 25N34W TO 27N41W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N44W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N43W COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN BASIN N OF 10N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
NR