Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY MORNING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL RESUME AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N06W SW TO 00N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 03S20W TO 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 04S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 06W-16W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST TO NEW 
ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE GULF WITH EAST TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 
94W. A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 
28N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO 
COAST NEAR 23N98W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 
29N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSE FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE 
SW GULF TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT 
ARE E OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF 
CLOUDINESS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 28N TO 
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TO THE N 
GULF COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE 
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE 
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. PATCHES 
OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS N OF A 
LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W INCLUDING JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND 
THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS WHICH SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO 
AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA 
COASTS TO 31N80W TO 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1027 MB LOW NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO 31N63W TO 29N66W 
TO 28N71W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. 
FARTHER EAST...A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES IS 
PRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT 
WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE 
E OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO