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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280530
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300 UTC 
OR AT ABOUT 117 NM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...MOVING W AT 15 
KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 62W-66W. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO 
OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TURKS AND CAICOS 
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE SEE THE 
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT1/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
15N32W TO A 1012 LOW NEAR 10N34W TO 07N34W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 
20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE PREVAILS IN THE 
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS NOTED IN TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 31W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N46W TO 08N48W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN 
DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING ANY 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
13N17W TO 14N27W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W TO 09N38W. THE 
ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 08N46W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION 
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W...ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 
TO THE S-SW ACROSS THE GULF TO A BASE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N85W TO 23N88W TO 
24N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE 
TROUGH E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N82W TO 24N84W WITH 
ISOLATED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF MAINLY S OF THE 
FRONT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS S OF 25N AND E OF 85W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A 
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM 
ERIKA CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF 
OF CUBA AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE W 
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER WINDS SURROUNDING ERIKA MAINLY 
E OF 71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR ERIKA TO CONTINUE 
MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THEN MOVE NW ENTERING THE SW 
ATLANTIC.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE CENTER 
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER  
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. ERIKA IS EXPECTED 
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH 
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 74W.  TO THE 
SE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
STORM ERIKA...DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE...IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 62W-66W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE 
MOVING ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB 
HIGH NEAR 29N64W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N27W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 05:30:36 UTC