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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE 
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ 
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N 
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W 
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE 
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO. 

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE 
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA... 
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND 
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM 
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN 
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD 
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE 
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE 
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL 
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE 
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... 
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS 
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO 
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N 
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS 
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND 
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN 
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH 
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL 
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE 
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR 
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN 
BERMUDA. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS 
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO 
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W 
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Jul-2015 10:57:43 UTC