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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 220530

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

As of 22/0300 UTC...a cold front extends across the Gulf of
Mexico from 27N82W to 25N90W to 22N98W generating near gale to
gale force NW to N winds generally S of 25N W of the front and W
of a surface trough analyzed from the front near 22N97W to 19N95W.
These conditions are expected to continue through Saturday
afternoon across portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

Tropical wave extends from 05N45W to 17N44W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing
between 40W-50W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along
the wave axis near 11N. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N-16N between 38W-48W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N22W to 06N30W to 07N41W. Aside from convection associated with
the tropical wave along 45W...widely scattered moderate convection
is from 05N-10N between 20W-37W.


A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
with axis extending from over the Carolinas S-SW to a broad base
over the NE and north-central Gulf waters near 26N88W. The
troughing supports a cold front analyzed across the central
Florida peninsula to 25N90W to 22N98W and inland as a stationary
front across interior portions of Mexico. Widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring across the western and SW Gulf
waters generally S of 24N W of 91W in association with the addition to the near gale to gale force NW to N winds
mentioned above in the Special Features section. High pressure
continues to build in across the lower Mississippi River valley
this evening and will gradually drift eastward across the SE CONUS
through Monday. Aside from the localized gale force wind
conditions expected across the SW Gulf...elsewhere moderate to
fresh N-NE winds are expected to persist through Sunday gradually
veering NE to E Sunday into early Monday then mostly E to SE on
Monday as the ridge shifts eastward.

A weak middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water
vapor imagery with axis extending over the central and SE Bahamas
SW to a broad base over the NW Caribbean waters near 18N85W. The
troughing supports a surface trough analyzed from across eastern
Cuba near 20N76W S-SW to across the SW Caribbean near 13N81W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 60 nm
either side of a line from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to
14N80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the NW Caribbean is under the
influence of fair conditions and gentle to moderate N winds for
the overnight period into Saturday. A cold front moving SE across
the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach the NW Caribbean by early
Sunday morning increasing NE winds across the region into the
moderate to occasional fresh breeze range Sunday into Sunday
night. Elsewhere...the eastern and central Caribbean are under
mostly fair skies this evening with moderate to fresh trades
prevailing and expected to persist through Monday.

Currently isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the
island with a line of scattered showers and tstms to the NW of the
island stretching from the across the Turks and Caicos Islands SW
through the Windward Passage to the NE coast of Jamaica near
18N76W. This activity is in association with a surface trough
analyzed from 23N70W SW to Jamaica near 18N77W supported aloft by
a middle to upper level shortwave trough progressing eastward over
the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Increased probability of
scattered showers and tstms is expected through Sunday as the
troughing lingers across the region.

The Special Features cold front continues to move eastward across
the far NW portion of the SW North Atlc region with a mid-level
shortwave supporting a 995 mb low centered near 33N71W and
associated surface trough extending from the low S-SW to 30N71W to
the SE Bahamas near 24N76W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Isolated
showers and possible isolated tstms are N of 26N between 67W-73W.
Farther east...another weaker frontal trough extends from 23N70W
to the Windward Passage region generating scattered showers and
strong tstms generally from 20N-25N between 63W-73W. Isolated
showers and tstms are elsewhere N of 25N between 58W-66W. The main
cold front is expected to merge with the easternmost two frontal
troughs by Sunday as ridging builds in across the western portion
of the SW North Atlc. By Monday...the cold front will weaken
slightly and become stationary between 57W-64W across the central
Atlc. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
currently is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a
1033 mb high centered well N of the discussion area SE of
Newfoundland Canada near 46N47W. One exception is a weakening cold
front analyzed from near the Madeira Islands near 33N16W SW to
27N26W then stationary westward to 27N42W. Isolated showers and
possible tstms are from 23N-28N between 28W-42W. This activity is
supported aloft by a middle to upper level low centered near

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