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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 01N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 27W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...     

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE NW GULF 
IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A 
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE LOW OVER 
THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE 
FROM 29N90W TO 26N94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES JUST 
EAST...EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 25N90W. THE COMBINATION OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER 
THE GULF IS AS OF 1630 UTC...HELPING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...TO THE GULF COAST NEAR 29N86W TO 27N87W. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 
27N88W TO 24N97W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING E 
OF 91 W BETWEEN THE WESTERNMOST SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FL 
PENINSULA. MAINLY E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE W OF 
91W...EXCEPT VARIABLE NEAR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. THE TROUGH 
AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE NE AND MOSTLY 
OUT OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER 
DISTURBANCE TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY WITH 
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER COLOMBIA. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE 
FEATURES DOMINATE THE BASIN...WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 25 
KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE N HONDURAS COAST...AND WITHIN 200 NM OF 
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. GENERALLY STABLE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EXPECTED. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...                                                    

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING 
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED 
TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT 
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OVER OUR AREA OF 
DISCUSSION FROM 32N60W TO 30N70W TO 31N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N35W 
SPANS ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A 
DISSIPATING FRONT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N22W TO 
24N45W WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN FROM 05N TO 32N BETWEEN W 
AFRICA AND 50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE 
N CENTRAL ATLC WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA ALONG 
60W WITH CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY 
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OFF THE N FL 
COAST...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
GULF AND SE US.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

LATTO


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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Apr-2015 17:52:09 UTC