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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL
LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 03N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N34W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS
NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N ALONG BOTH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH OVER NE WATERS NEAR 26N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE
VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER
VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA
WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO
STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 84W. WITH HIGH PRES
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN IN THE SW BASIN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. 

HISPANIOLA...                                          

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN
JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING
AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW HAITI
TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE
FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS