000
AXNT20 KNHC 181026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jul 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 17N 
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted across the southern portion of the wave. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from the western 
tip of Hispaniola southward to northern Colombia, moving west at 
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at
this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from 21N southward, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W to 08N46W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 08N46W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm S of the boundaries E of 25W and W of
42W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough runs southward from a 1014 mb low, former Invest
AL93 over southeastern Louisiana to the central Gulf. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just southwest of
New Orleans. An upper-level trough is triggering scattered 
thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh NE to 
E to S-SE winds and moderate seas exist at the eastern Bay of 
Campeche, Florida Straits and northern Gulf between New Orleans, 
LO and Panama City, Fl. A surface ridge extending southwestward 
from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico supports the rest of 
the Gulf with gentle E to SE winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the remnants of AL93 will continue enhancing 
scattered moderate convection across the NW portion of the basin
today. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging prevails. Moderate to 
fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each 
afternoon and evening into next week. High pressure building over 
the northeastern Gulf this weekend will support gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas across remainder of the the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms offshore of south-central Cuba. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea. A 1023 mb Bermuda High is sustaining trade-wind flow across
the entire basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE to E
winds with rough seas dominate the south-central basin. Fresh 
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas prevail over the north- 
central and southwestern basin, including the Windward Passage. 
Fresh E winds and moderate seas are noted at the Gulf of 
Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and moderate seas 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across
the central Caribbean and Windward Passage today, as high 
pressure strengthens in the central Atlantic. Periods of near-gale
force winds and rough/very rough seas are likely in the offshore 
of northern Colombia nightly into the weekend. Winds will diminish
on Sun, with seas subsiding by late Sun into next week. In the 
Gulf of Honduras, pulsing fresh to strong winds will develop each 
afternoon and evening through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
and moderate seas will prevail over the eastern basin into next 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 28N59W is triggering scattered moderate 
convection southeast of Bermuda, north of 26N between 55W and 
60W. Convergent fresh to strong SE winds are generating similar 
convection in the Great Bahama Bank, with moderate seas. A 1022 
mb high near 29N66W is supporting light to gentle winds with
slight seas north of 26N between 60W and 75W. Elsewhere, the 
subtropical ridge is sustaining gentle to moderate NE to SE winds 
and moderate seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are
expected north of the Greater Antilles to 25N through today as a 
pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over the south- 
central Caribbean and high pressure in the central Atlantic. 
Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and through the 
Windward Passage into early Sat. Winds will diminish slightly Sun 
into next week as high pressure weakens and drifts westward over 
the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and
moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period.  

$$
ERA