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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280907 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

corrected surface analysis time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N34W to
broad low pressure of 1012 mb at 10N34W and to 06N34W, moving 
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
09N-12N between 32W-38W. Both satellite imagery and the total 
precipitable water (TPW) imagery animation both reveal that 
moisture has increased within the surrounding environment of the 
this system, and seems to have overtaken most of the Saharan dust 
that has been present over its northern portion the past several 
days. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within
45 nm of 12N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
line from 12N34W to 11N37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N43W to 
12N45W to 03N45W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is moving
through a very stable atmospheric environment marked by the
presence of a very pronounced African Saharan Air Layer that 
covers the eastern and central Atlantic north of the tropics. 
Latest water vapor imagery confirms that strong subsidence and 
resultant dry air prevails over the the northern and central 
portions of this wave. The total precipitable water (TPW) imagery 
animation shows that moisture associated with this wave is 
suppressed to the south of 12N within the region where the monsoon
trough transitions to the ITCZ. Satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate isolated strong convection west of the wave within 30 nm
of a line from 08N46W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate convection 
is east of the wave to 43W from 05N-09N. The wave is forecast to 
approach the Lesser Antilles late on Sunday.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W, and extends 
northward to the Atlantic near 21N. Water vapor imagery depicts 
dry subsident air over the wave north of 15N. No deep convection 
is occurring with this wave. Only isolated showers and weak 
isolated thunderstorms moving quickly westward in the trade wind 
flow are noted within 150 nm either side of the wave. This wave 
will move across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean through 
tonight, then through the central Caribbean on Saturday. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is just east of Jamaica with
its axis along 76W south of 18.5N. It is moving west at about 17
kt. Moisture with this wave remains rather shallow at the low-mid
levels to its, while at the upper levels water vapor imagery shows 
a thin moisture in the form of scattered high clouds streaming 
eastward across the wave. The southern portion of the wave is 
aiding strong type convective complex observed over northwestern 
Colombia and its adjacent waters. Otherwise, only isolated 
showers and thunderstorms moving quickly westward in the trade 
wind flow are within 120 nm east and 300 nm west of the wave 
north from 14N-18N. The wave will move across the rest of the 
central Caribbean through most of this morning, then across the 
western Caribbean through tonight and inland central America on 
Saturday. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 19N16W southwest to 13N24W
to a 1012 mb low at 10N34W and to 07N45W, where scatterometer data 
indicates the ITCZ then begins and continues to 07N50W to 
near 06N56W. Aside from convection related to the tropical
waves as described above, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 
38W-40W, and also to the south of the monsoon trough from 06N-09N
between 26W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm 
south of the trough between 40W-43W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is south of the 
monsoon trough from 06N-09N. Scattered moderate convection is 
well to the southeast of the monsoon trough off the coast of 
Africa from 05N-09N between 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper levels, a small upper low moving west is over the 
north-central Gulf at 27N91W. The southern periphery of strong 
riding aloft associated with a large anticyclone over Oklahoma
covers the northern portion of the Gulf. Dry air aloft is present 
over some areas of the central and western Gulf. At the surface,
a weak 1016 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf at 28N92W. It 
is maintaining a rather weak pressure pattern over the area. A 
1014 mb low is over northern Florida near 30N84W with a trough 
extending southwest to 27N88W. Latest satellite imagery and NWS 
mosaic radar animation are indicating less shower and 
thunderstorm activity over the basin than what was seen the past 
few nights. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
mainly over the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida, and are 
moving to the west. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over 
the NE Gulf near the surface trough, and also from 26N-28N east 
of 87W. 

Little change is expected through Saturday for the majority of the
Gulf. On Saturday, a weak front is forecast to drop south over 
the southeastern United States to near the Florida panhandle by 
late Saturday may bring an increase of moisture along with an 
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity to the NE Gulf at 
that time.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details on these features. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms continue over the western Caribbean 
elsewhere to the west of the activity associated with the 
tropical wave along 76W. This activity is located on the 
southern periphery of an upper-level low centered just south of 
western Cuba as seen in water vapor imagery. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection has quickly developed over the SW 
Caribbean from 09N-13N west of 80W. Isolated showers and 
possible isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere over the western 
Caribbean. The present pressure gradient will allow for fresh to 
strong trades to continue over the south-central Caribbean 
through the weekend, with moderate to locally fresh trades 
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

The scattered showers showers and thunderstorms that developed 
over the interior portions of the island on Thursday have 
dissipated. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted
over some of the interior locations of the island as well
as over its adjacent waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop again today with daytime heating and local
effects in play over some of the interior locations. With 
dry air aloft nearby, this may limit the activity some. Moisture
should increase on Saturday as the present eastern Caribbean
tropical wave passes through the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the upper levels, a large upper-level low lifting northward
is identified to be near 26N58W, with a trough stretching south-
southwestward to 21N59W and to the northeastern portion of the 
Caribbean. This low is reflected at the surface as a trough that 
extends along a position from 31N56W to 23N59W. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are seen north of 22N between 53W-62W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are north of 28N between 63W-70W, and
are ahead of a stationary front north of the area. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over and near the Bahamas.
Otherwise, high pressure ridging along 28N is supporting light 
to gentle breezes and slight seas. Farther east, high pressure 
over the central Atlantic is maintaining gentle to moderate 
trade winds, with Saharan dust dominating east of 55W and is 
resulting in very stable conditions there.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre