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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221749
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N26W TO 22N23W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N THAT 
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND PART OF A SHARP 
700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALOFT ALONG 26W. GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL 
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N44W TO 19N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THIS WAVE IS WEAKER THAN ITS EASTERN AND WESTERN 
COUNTERPARTS...YET COINCIDES WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING 
BETWEEN 38W-48W. ONE REASON THE WAVE REMAINS WEAKER IS THE 
PRESENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE SAHARAN AIR LAYER KEEPING 
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH REGION S OF 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N65W TO 21N62W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
VICINITY BETWEEN 58W-68W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS 
MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS SUPPORTING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 56W-63W. 
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS AREA OF WEATHER 
PASSES WEST BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N78W TO 20N81W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EAST THIS MORNING BASED 
ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE OF BROAD 
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 
73W-82W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 
05N19W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 15N19W TO A 1012 MB LOW 
NEAR 17N25W TO 12N30W TO 08N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION 
OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 15W-21W...FROM 11N-16N 
BETWEEN 14W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N 
BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 33W-42W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                          
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH DIPPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N86W. AMPLE DYNAMICS 
ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N88W THAT 
IS ANALYZED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH 
ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF 
WATERS NEAR 29N83W. THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE LOW THEN W-SW TO 
THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. MOST CONVECTION IN THE 
FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GULF FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 82W-90W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY 
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA 
STRAITS BETWEEN 79W-82W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALSO 
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 24N92W TO 20N95W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE 
IS HELD AT BAY ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A 
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SE CONUS EAST OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT ON 
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON... 
ONE ALONG 64W AND THE OTHER ALONG 80W. THE EASTERN-MOST TROPICAL 
WAVE IS BRINGING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS 
AFTERNOON TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL WAVE AS 
IT MOVES WEST AND BEGIN IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN-MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS 
LARGELY PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE OPEN WATERS 
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 69W-82W...AND THIS 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W. OTHERWISE...THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OCCURRING S OF 12N.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             
CURRENTLY...FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND 
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR SKIES ALSO PREVAIL TO THE EAST ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE US/UK 
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE FAVORABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 
TUESDAY WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS BY AND BRING INCREASED 
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT 
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N70W SW TO 30N75W TO 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N W OF 74W ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SW 
NORTH ATLC...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEST INTO THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A 
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS 
AND COASTAL GULF PLAIN ON TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N54W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF 
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OCCURRING FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 44W-57W. THE TAIL END OF A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N44W TO 
30N53W EXTENDS INTO THIS AREA OF CONVECTION PROVIDING ENHANCED 
FOCUS ON CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT. TO THE EAST...A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W NEAR A 1017 MB 
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT AT 31N. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 
28N36W THEN W-NW TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 29N44W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Monday, 22-Sep-2014 17:49:56 UTC