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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH 
A SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N90W TO 26N92W. GALE WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP 
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST 
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W 
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N30W TO 5N45W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 12W AND 
23W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W TO 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
17N82W AND EXTENDS N OVER THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA. A TROUGH 
DIGGING INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE S 
CENTRAL CONUS NEAR 31N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW 
ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 30N89W AND OVER FL NEAR 29N82W. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE 
WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
AND LOW...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS 
SUPPORTING A EAST MOVING SQUALL LINE FROM 29N90W TO 26N92W AND 
OTHER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT E OF 85W. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION ABOVE. AWAY FROM THE SQUALL LINE...15 TO 20 KT S TO SE 
FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN WITH S TO SW FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT 
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SQUALL LINE 
WILL EXIT THE BASIN AND DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
THE NW GULF WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 
IN REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON 
MONDAY. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
17N82W. DRY AIR IN THE REGION AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS 
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 
BASIN. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 
BASIN IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W 
AND 75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD AND 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR 
WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN 
THE E CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION BASIN-
WIDE. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

A MOIST AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE 
ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 29N82W TO 25N72W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 
80W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N72W TO 25N56W AND A COLD 
FRONT 25N56W TO 31N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF 
EITHER SIDE OF THESE FRONTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE 
BASIN N OF 15N E OF 40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT 
AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THE WARM FRONT 
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 17:54:58 UTC