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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 010559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 
01S23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA 
COAST NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 
04N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
04S TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH 
CIRRUS STREAMING W TO E OVER THE GULF IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 
AT THE SURFACE...A WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE 
IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. 
THIS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF PRIMARILY 
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT...WITH LIGHTER FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 
HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE SURFACE 
HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND OVER THE GULF A SHORT 
DISTANCE TO 22N90W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE 
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS 
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.         

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL 
CENTRAL ATLC TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT THEN EXTENDS SW TO 
HISPANIOLA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FORM 
THE FRONT EXTEND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 17N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW 
ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 14N AND 18N. TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT 
FOR AN AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION 
TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 26N50W TO 18N73W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES 
TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                            
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION 
NEAR 32N42W TO 26N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT 
TO 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 26N66W IS 
ENHANCING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. SURFACE 
RIDGING SURROUNDS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1021 HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 28N60W...AND ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N49W. THE 
WESTERNMOST HIGH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 7N28W. NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 CONVECTION OVER THE SE 
US ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC MAY 
ENTER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N 
FL COAST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA OF 
DISCUSSION WILL DISSIPATE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Apr-2015 05:59:38 UTC