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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS ALONG 03N15W TO 3N21W 
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W 01N40W TO THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 02S TO 02N W 
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED 
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N 
ATLC WATERS...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO 
SE LOUISIANA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN 
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL 
LINE MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SE 
LOUISIANA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS N OF 28N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER 
NE GULF WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW OVER NW TEXAS SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
ANCHORED BY A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W. A SECOND 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG 28N96W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 
INLAND MEXICO. SEA FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THIS REGION OF THE 
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W...COINCIDING GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH 
FOG PROBABILITIES. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE S-SE OF 10 TO 15 KT 
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 27N. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE 
BEING REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE SQUALL LINE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE TO 
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF EASTERN BASIN 
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN IT STARTS RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT. THE 
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DRIFT N AND THEN EAST ALONG THE 
NORTHERN GULF...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WED MORNING WITH 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE SW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...HOWEVER NO 
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED PATCHES OF 
SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
BASIN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE 
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND S OF 
15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED. 
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN BASIN 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE 
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY WED 
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AS MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGING 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN 
HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED DURING 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED 
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N 
ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N66W TO 28N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND 
THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF IT...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N58W TO 27N72W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 33N47W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 275 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. A 1019 
MB DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W WITH NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER 
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Apr-2015 18:04:26 UTC