241 
AXNT20 KNHC 241812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 10N to 14N between 33W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 17N southward, 
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 11N to 13N between 46W and 50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from near the
Virgin Islands southward into eastern Venezuela. It is moving west 
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
northeastern Venezuela northward to the northeastern Caribbean 
Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast 
near Nouakchott, then reaches west-southwestward across 12N30W to
11N45W. An ITCZ extends westward from 10N50W to north of Guyana 
at 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm
along either side of the ITCZ, and up to 180 nm south of the 
monsoon trough west of 40W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating 
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough curves southwestward from a 1015 mb low just east 
of New Orleans to 20N90W. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are flaring up near this low. Aided by divergent 
flow aloft, numerous heavy showers and scattered strong 
thunderstorms are occurring at the northwestern Gulf. An upper- 
level trough is triggering is isolated thunderstorms off the coast
of southwestern Florida. A 1017 mb high is dominating the 
southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 
1 to 3 ft are evident across the eastern Atlantic. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, over the next day or two, this system is 
forecast to move generally westward across the north-central 
portion of the Gulf where some slow development is possible. By 
this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its 
chances for development. Regardless of development, scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in association 
with this system across most of the northeastern and north-central
Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast 
along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough
develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of 
Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough runs northwestward from near the ABC Islands
to near Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of
the ABC Islands and south of the Cayman Islands. Refer to the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional 
convection it the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between a 
Bermuda High and a 1010 mb Colombian low is leading to fresh to 
strong trades in the central basin along with 6 to 9 ft seas. 
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident
at the northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft 
seas exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh
ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the 
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the central 
Caribbean will persist through the end of the week. Fresh to 
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas in the Windward Passage
are expected through the end of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs west-southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N54W to south of Bermuda near 29N63W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is present up to 140 nm along
either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate SW to W to NW winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft dominate north of 27N between 44W and 65W. Otherwise, the
Subtropical Ridge is maintaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 4
ft seas north of 26N between 35W and the Florida/southern
Georgia. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 27N between 35W 
and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle with locally moderate SE 
to S winds and 4 to 6 ft dominate this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to 
dominate the weather pattern across the western Atlantic. North 
of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, 
fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are expected through the 
end of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow 
along with mostly moderate seas are expected. A frontal boundary 
is forecast to reach the northeastern waters toward the end of 
the week and dissipate, with little change expected in winds and 
seas.

$$

Chan