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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO RESUME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
FROM 01S TO 04N E OF 20W AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER 
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN 
GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL 
SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE 
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT 
SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE 
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING 
LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLAND...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 17N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS 
MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. 
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT 
DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB LOW 
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT 
FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH 
NEAR 36N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR 
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE 
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Feb-2015 06:05:23 UTC