AXNT20 KNHC 291750
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave extends from 12N23W to 19N26W moving W at 10 kt. A
1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
where global model data indicates a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity. The wave itself coincides with a low to mid level
trough extending northward to the immediate west of the Cape Verde
islands along 25N. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N
between 21W-27W. This area has a medium potential for tropical
cyclone development during the next 48 hours.
Tropical wave extends from 11N44W to 20N45W moving W at 20-25 kt.
The wave coincides with a relatively broad and amplified 700 mb
trough between 40W-52W and copious deep layer moisture noted in
SSMI Total Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer
data also indicates associated surface troughing with an area of
fresh trades on the northern portion of the surface trough from
14N-21N between 43W-50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N-16N between 42W-50W. As this wave moves W during the next
several days...the trades accompanied by potentially higher gusts
will move across the Atlc waters north of the Greater Antilles and
waters surrounding the Turks and Caicos...SE Bahamas...and eastern
and central Cuba creating hazardous boating conditions.
Tropical wave extends from 09N54W to 14N58W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave remains fairly weak and low amplitude with limited
moisture resulting in no significant deep convection at this time.
Tropical wave extends from 13N88W to 20N89W moving W-NW at 10-15
kt. The wave is expected to continue on a gradually weakening
trend the next 24-36 hours with scattered moderate convection
occurring along coastal Nicaragua and Honduras and isolated
moderate convection elsewhere from 15N-21N between 85W-90W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N23W to 11N44W to 10N50W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N50W to
09N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves...isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 25W-
38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 46W-
GULF OF MEXICO...
Divergence aloft on the eastern periphery of upper level low
centered over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 22N97W is
enhancing isolated showers and tstms across the central waters in
the vicinity of 26N90W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails from
the SW North Atlc across Florida into the eastern Gulf. Generally
gentle to light flow prevails...except for locally moderate to
fresh winds near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Isolated showers and tstms will persist through tonight as the
upper level low tracks westward during the next 24 hours...ahead
of the northern portion of a tropical wave moving across the
Yucatan and Belize currently. The tropical wave will likely enhance
the usual evening trough off the western Yucatan tonight and
An upper trough extends from over eastern Hispaniola near 19N69W
SW to 16N70W to 13N77W. This is supporting a weak lower to mid
level trough moving across the eastern Caribbean between 62W-72W
with isolated showers and tstms occurring from 12N-17N between
64W-70W. The lower to mid level trough is expected to dampen out
as it moves west-northwest during the next 24-36 hours.
Otherwise...fresh to strong trade winds persist across the central
Caribbean between the tropical wave exiting to the west and
approaching deep layer trough. Finally...the amplified tropical
wave currently along 44W/45W will approach the Lesser Antilles by
Saturday night with fresh to strong winds accompanying the
northern extent of the wave across the Leeward islands and Puerto
Rico through Sunday morning.
A upper level trough currently noted on water vapor imagery over
the eastern portion of the island will likely support scattered
showers and tstms across interior areas of Hispaniola this
afternoon and evening.
Aside from the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlc
portion of the basin...a 1019 mb surface high is centered across
the SW North Atlc near 26N77W. To the east...another surface
ridge prevails extending across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 40N34W. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.
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