000
AXNT20 KNHC 250457
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N69W, about 445 nm to the
north of Hispaniola. One part of a surface trough extends
northeastward from the 1012 mb low pressure center to 29N60W.
Another part of a surface trough extends southwestward from the
1012 mb low pressure center to SE Cuba. Precipitation:
disorganized rainshowers are from the Dominican Republic northward
between 50W and 70W. This weather feature is expected to move
northeastward during the next day or two. The development into a
tropical or subtropical cyclone appears to be unlikely, due to
unfavorable environmental conditions. An upper level trough passes
through 31N65W, to the Bahamas and Cuba, and into the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from
Jamaica westward. Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the
areas that are close to 10N80W, toward the northeast. Upper level
moisture covers the Caribbean Sea from Haiti eastward. It is
possible for locally heavy rain to reach Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
and the U.S./British Virgin Islands during the weekend,
particularly in Hispaniola. Residents in these areas should remain
alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please,
refer to your local weather office for more detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season is along 56W from 12N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the
tropical wave and 60W from 10N southward. The wave will cross the
Windward Islands on Saturday. Gusty winds and active weather are 
expected with the tropical wave. 

N.B. About 60 tropical waves are generated in North Africa each 
year on the average. It appears that the number of tropical waves
has no relationship to the amount of tropical cyclone activity 
that develops in the Atlantic Ocean each year. Nearly 85% of the 
intense (or major) hurricanes have their origins as easterly 
waves. Only 60% of the Atlantic Ocean tropical storms and minor 
hurricanes originate from easterly waves,

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
close to 10N14W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to
04N30W and 03N40W 03N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm to 180 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ; and within 120 nm to 180 nm to the south of
the same boundary between 16W and 27W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 05N southward from 20W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is along 28N/29N.

Slight seas cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for
moderate seas that are about 220 nm to the NNW of the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly fresh, to some strong, SE winds are
from 22N northward from 90W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are in the rest of the Gulf. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Reduced visibilities and hazy conditions are in the western Gulf,
due to smoke from agricultural fires that are in southern Mexico.
Earlier visible satellite imagery was confirming that smoke was 
extending northward from the Bay of Campeche, creating hazy 
conditions.

High pressure over the region will begin to shift ESE starting 
Sun. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the western Gulf, and 
gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere are expected to 
continue through the weekend, except for winds becoming light and 
variable over most of the eastern Gulf through early next week. A 
cold front will move across the NE Gulf from late Tue through Wed 
night, followed by gentle to moderate west to NW winds. Fresh to 
strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan 
Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the 
period. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico 
continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
a Significant Rainfall Event that is forecast to impact Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico during the next few days.

Slight seas cover much of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for
moderate seas that are in the coastal waters of Belize and
Honduras; and in the coastal waters of Venezuela and Colombia 
between 68W and 73W. Fresh easterly winds are from 14N southward
between 63W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

Smoke continues in the Gulf of Honduras, from agricultural fires 
that are in Honduras. The visibilities in some areas have been 
reduced to 3 nm. Please exercise caution in areas of dense smoke.

A very pronounced deep-layer trough that extends from the 
Windward Passage SW to northern Costa Rica will lift E-NE across 
Hispaniola through Sat night. Active weather east of the trough 
will gradually shift NE into the Atlantic through Sat night. A 
rather weak pressure pattern across the area will maintain 
generally moderate trade winds across the basin, except for 
moderate to fresh winds over the NW part of the sea through late 
Sun night. Afterwards, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected 
over the basin through the middle of next week, except for light 
to gentle winds over the northern part of the NW Caribbean. A low 
latitude tropical wave is currently in the Tropical N Atlantic 
near 56W. The wave will cross the Windward Islands late Sat 
afternoon into Sat night, move through the E Caribbean Sun through
Mon night, then become ill-defined as it approaches the central 
Caribbean Tue. Gusty winds and active weather are expected with 
the wave. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America may 
persist across the Gulf of Honduras over the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate seas cover much of the Atlantic Ocean. An exception is
for slight seas from 21N northward between 40W and 60W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are from 20N to 26N from 21W eastward. Moderate NE
winds are elsewhere from 30N17W 24N30W 18N41W 17N50W southward.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 20N southward between
50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 15N northward from
50W eastward. A surface trough is along 31N25W 29N30W 25N40W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated
moderate, are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the trough.

A trough extends from near 29N61W WSW to weak low pressure of 
1012 mb near 27N69W to E Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are presently in the NE semicircle of the low to 57W. Regarding 
the low, although environmental conditions are not conducive, some
slight subtropical or tropical development is possible over the 
next couple of days while the system moves generally NE. 
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain over the 
region for the next few days. The associated gradient will support
moderate winds and seas are possible north of the Bahamas and off
northeast Florida by Mon night as the high pressure shifts 
eastward ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the 
southeastern U.S. coast Mon night, move across the waters east of 
northern Florida early on Tue, reach from near 31N79W to east- 
central Florida early on Wed and from near 31N78W to 29N79W and 
stationary to east-central Florida Wed night. 

$$
mt/nr