629 
AXNT20 KNHC 200452
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue May 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0451 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave continues to move west at 15 kt across the 
tropical Atlantic. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 09N 
and is along about 24.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 03N to 06N between 23W and 29W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 10N14W
along the coast of Guinea and extends southwestward to near 
06.5N20.5W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W and continues westward 
to near 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 
08.5N between 16W and 20W, and south of 07.5N west of 44.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak 1015 mb high pressure offshore of Tampa Bay, Florida extends
a ridge westward across the N Gulf coast. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure across northern Mexico is 
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf west
of 90W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are found north of the 
Yucatan Penninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over 
the basin. Seas across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft to the west of 
88W and 1-4 ft east of 88W. No significant deep convection is 
depicted at this time. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires 
over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over 
the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of 
Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located just offshore of 
Tampa Bay extends a ridge westward across the northern Gulf coast.
The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower 
pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to 
fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through 
Tue. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall,
then lift north and dissipate Wed night. Yet another weak front 
will sink into the NE Gulf Thu night into Fri. High pressure 
should prevail this coming weekend. E winds will pulse fresh to 
strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each 
afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops 
daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires 
in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky 
conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure centered just northeast of the Bahamas extends a 
weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a surface 
trough extends from the SW N Atlantic to north of the Leeward
Island. This weather pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 
winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds north of 
Honduras, and fresh winds north of Venezuela. Seas across the 
Caribbean are in the 2 to 5 ft range. Isolated moderate 
convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 14N.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas 
extends a weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a
surface trough extends from the central Atlantic along 57W to 
north of the Leeward Island. This pattern will yield generally 
moderate winds across the basin west of 75W through Tue, except 
for fresh to strong E to SE winds pulsing during the late 
afternoon through night near the Gulf of Honduras throughout the 
next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail 
across the basin E of 75W through Tue. The surface trough will 
weaken and drift northeast during the next few days, and gradually
allow high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for 
increasing trades and building seas across the eastern part of the
basin beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the central part
of the basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by the
end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail
in the Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layered low pressure extends from 27N50W southwestward 
across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and is supporting scattered 
showers and thunderstorms north of 12N between 45W and 60W. An 
associated surface trough also persists along 57W-58W, while weak 
high pressure is just northeast of the Bahamas. Due to the very 
weak pressure gradient in the area, winds are moderate or weaker 
west of 55W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 55W south of 29N, and are 
4-6 ft west of 55W north of 29N. Farther east, a 1026 mb Azores 
High is centered near 32N34W. A moderate pressure gradient 
between the high and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
is causing moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 28N east of 
55W, except fresh to strong NE winds along the Western 
Sahara/Morocco coasts and between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8
ft east of 60W, except 3-6 ft north of 26N between 20W-55W. 


For the forecast west of 55W, deep-layered low pressure extends 
from 27N50W southwestward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and 
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 12N 
between 45W and 60W. An associated surface trough also persists 
along 57W-58W, while weak high pressure is just northeast of the 
Bahamas. This middle to upper-level low pressure will gradually 
weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing for the surface
trough to weaken and shift NE, and showers and thunderstorms 
shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located to the west 
of the trough and northeast of the Bahamas will support gentle to 
moderate winds over most of the area west of the trough through 
the period, except for moderate westerly winds north of 28N due to
a passing weak frontal trough. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each 
night for the next few days. Fresh SW to W winds and building seas
are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of the
Bahamas Tue night and Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the 
southeastern United States coast Wed night. The front will reach 
from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken as it 
reaches from near 31N68W to just E of the NW Bahamas by Sat 
morning. 

$$
KRV