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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 291055

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

Hurricane Gaston remains nearly stationary near 30.8N 55.2W at
29/0900 UTC or about 515 nm east of Bermuda. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 29N-32N between 53W-56W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 32.6N 73.0W at 29/0900
UTC or about 200 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the
southwest quadrant of T.D. Eight. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 23.5N 83.9W at 29/0900
UTC or about 85 nm west-northwest of Havana Cuba and about 135 nm
west-southwest of Key West Florida moving west at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 21N-23N between 82W-84W. See latest NHC
Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N16W to 09N24W to 09N37W to
08N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N42W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N
between 11W-15W, and from 06N-10N between 49W-62W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 12N-15N between 17W-20W...and from
05N-10N between 23W-42W.


The primary concern continues to be the development and track of Tropical
Depression Nine centered in the Florida Straits. The depression
is on the southeastern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered over the eastern Gulf waters near 25N85W
which will allow for slow and gradual strengthening during the
next several days. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf east of 87W. A
weak surface trough extends across the northwest Gulf from near
Corpus Christi to 24N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
persist between the trough and the coastline. Farther south,
modest convection is note along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, aligning with a weak local surface trough near the
coast moving westward into the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere recent
observations and earlier scatterometer data indicate gentle to
moderate northeast winds across the basin through Monday. By
Tuesday, T.D. Nine is expected across central portions of the
basin and will begin re-curving to the NE and in the general
direction of the Florida Big Bend region.

Latest observations indicate moderate to fresh trade wind flow
over the southern Caribbean, and light easterlies over the
northwest and far western Caribbean. The relatively light trade
winds are due to a weak pressure gradient in place as T.D. Nine in
the Florida Straits and a trough north of Puerto Rico disrupt the
effects of the subtropical ridge north of the region. This pattern
will persist into early next week, then return to a more typical
pattern with a dominant ridge to the north and stronger trade wind
flow. Meanwhile an upper level ridge axis extends from over
Tropical Depression Nine centered in the Florida Straits southeast
to the south- central Caribbean. The ridging is providing an
overall diffluent environment aloft in support of scattered
showers and tstms occurring generally north of 15N between 75W-
85W. Showers are also moving into the southern Windward Islands,
from Trinidad and Tobago to Saint Vincent. Scattered showers
persist over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, on the southern
edge of an upper low centered north of the area.

A few low topped showers persist across Haiti this morning, on the
periphery of an upper low centered northeast of the region near
22N65W. Divergence aloft on the edge of the upper low will likely
support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the
mountainous central portions of Hispaniola later this after as
daytime heating increases. The upper level low is expected to
continue drifting westward to 70W through Monday and then begin
moving north and weakening by Tuesday. Additional precipitation
and convection with possible heavy rainfall...flash flooding...and
mud slides are anticipated across the island through Monday.

Aside from active tropical cyclones...scattered showers and
isolated tstms are noted across the Bahamas and adjacent waters
on the northeast periphery of Tropical Depression Nine centered
in the Florida Straits. Farther east, an upper level low is
centered near 22N65W and supports a surface trough from the Mona
Passage to 26N65W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
ongoing south of 25N between 60W and 70W Elsewhere, the remainder
of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N42W and
a stronger 1029 mb high centered west of the Iberian peninsula
near 43N16W.

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