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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210002
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N45W IS GENERATING GALE 
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 210 
NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SEAS 
UP TO 17 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 06 HOURS. AS A 
RESULT..THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 
10N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W TO 05N30W 
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 
36W-40W...AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 42W-48W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ENE FROM 
THE LOW TO BEYOND ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 
20N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF 
AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N E OF 87W. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. MOSTLY 10 KT WINDS ARE S OF 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA FROM 24N86W TO BEYOND 20N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 84W-
88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WSW FLOW 
OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE 
ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT 
DRIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE 
TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WITH 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF TO THE COAST OF BELIZE 
FROM 24N86W TO 20N88W TO 17N88W. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF 19N 
BETWEEN 84W-88W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 
CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.  

HISPANIOLA...                   

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE 
ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
31N55W TO 30N63W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 30N73W 
TO 31N78W TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS FURTHER S NEAR 
26N65W. A 1009 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. SEE ABOVE. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N42W TO 22N41W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM E OF FRONT. A 
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 40N22W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE GALE 
LOW. ALSO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOVE THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
DRIFT ESE WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE LOW TO MOVE TO 
38N40W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 27N42W WITH CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Dec-2014 00:02:20 UTC