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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 020521

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 03N37W to 12N37W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with 700
mb troughing between 32W-42W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-10N between 33W-40W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N65W to 18N63W moving W at 20 kt.
This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 60W-67W.
Isolated moderate convection from 11N-20N between 60W-66W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N75W to 18N75W moving W at 20 kt.
The coincides with 700 mb troughing between 70W-80W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 72W-78W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N87W to 14N87W moving W at 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-16N between

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
09N19W to 08N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 08N25W to 08N37W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 05N-08N between 20W-24W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-10N between 40W-51W.


A middle to upper level trough axis is noted on water vapor
imagery progressing eastward over the SE U.S. and mid-Atlc coast
this evening. The troughing aloft supports overall weaker low
pressure across much of the SE CONUS in support of a stationary
front extending from the western Carolinas SW to the lower
Mississippi River valley. Global model fields indicate mid-level
energy remains across the northern Florida peninsula and portions
of the eastern Gulf waters in support of a weak surface trough
analyzed from 30N84W to 28N93W. Isolated showers continue to
gradually dissipate N of 26N E of 90W while widely scattered
showers and isolated tstms continue across portions of the central
Florida peninsula. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from
across southern Florida and the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf
near 21N97W. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic
winds are occurring across the basin this evening and this
overall pattern is expected through Monday night as the ridge axis
holds along 26N/27N.

Water vapor imagery indicates northerly flow aloft over much of
the western and central Caribbean providing overall fair skies
this evening with the exception of isolated showers occurring
across the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba within 60 nm of the
coast...and stronger scattered showers and tstms S of 11N between
75W-83W. Farther upper level low is centered over the
Windward Passage region near 20N74W. East of trough axis extending
south along 74W...moist S-SW flow aloft continues to generate middle
to upper level cloudiness with embedded isolated showers possible.
The addition of a tropical wave along 64W is providing the
necessary low-level focus for widely scattered showers and tstms
generally E of 66W. Fresh to strong trades are expected to
persist generally between 68W-80W through the weekend.

Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the
overnight hours across the island. Southerly flow aloft is noted
on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered over the
Windward Passage near 20N74W. This environment along with peak
daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and
tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

An upper level trough axis is currently moving over the SE U.S.
coast providing cloudiness across much of the northwestern SW
North Atlc waters. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
generally NW of a line from 26N80W to 32N70W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored across the central North Atlc with ridge axis
extending from 32N55W to 26N80W. This surface ridge also
influences much of the central and eastern Atlc as the 1036 mb
high is centered NW of the Azores near 40N32W.

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