Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061733
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...THE 
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1015 MB LOCATED OVER THE NW 
BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS OF 1200 UTC WAS NEAR 27N79W. 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY 
NORTHWARD. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 
03N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N30W TO 
02N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W AND 19W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 
19W AND 48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN FL AND 
THE BAHAMAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER MEXICO AND 
THE WESTERN GULF. NORTHWESTERLY STABLE FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING 
GENERALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS 
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH 
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE KEYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN FL AND THE BAHAMAS 
HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA. DIFFLUENCE AROUND 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
LOCATED SOUTH OF 10N OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA 
AND PACIFIC WATERS. DRY AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH 
AN ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MUDSLIDES OVER CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CUBA. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER HAITI OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THURSDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...  

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER EASTERN FL AND THE 
BAHAMAS AND SUPPORTS A 1015 LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N79W. SEE THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N81W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 30N76W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N 
TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL EAST COAST. A 
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N54W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF 
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N24W TO 23N35W TO 23N53W. NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL 
MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE BAHAMAS 
AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 06-May-2015 17:34:06 UTC