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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N 
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST 
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 
6N-16N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 42W 
FROM 5N-12N MOVING NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW 
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN 
UPPER LOW AND GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 36W-42W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 18N 
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 12N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N21W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N28W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 7N40W THEN RESUMES W OF THIS WAVE NEAR 7N44W INTO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 
TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N89W TO VERACRUZ 
MEXICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO JUST E OF COATZACOALCOS. THE 
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 89W-
92W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO TEXAS WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
PERSIST ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE 
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19N-20N W OF 85W TO 
INLAND OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING 
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR 
BUT HAZY SKIES TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 
SUN. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W 
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN UPPER 
LOW N OF THE ISLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE 
ISLAND...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST IS 
LIMITING CONVECTION TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS COULD 
INCREASE SAT AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W JUST 
S OF THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N78W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 
75W AND IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE W TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N W 
OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW N OF 
HISPANIOLA IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 
65W-72W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC...ONE EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 23N46W AND THE SECOND FROM 
30N56W TO 25N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N51W TO 28N56W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N45W AND EXTENDING A 
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N60W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS 
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TUE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Jul-2015 05:37:33 UTC